Too Rich 4 My Blood

By: Josh Frey-Sam

We’re about four weeks out from peak draft season, and the board is really starting to shift.

That’s great for some players, who are becoming even better values than they have been all season. For others, some are simply priced too high, and it’s up to us to uncover which players are not the bang for their buck.

Here is one player from each round who I am avoiding at their current price.

Round 1: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA

JSN was an efficiency monster last season, finishing with one of the most efficient seasons from a WR we’ve ever seen.

To put it bluntly, that’s not going to happen again. A natural regression is in store.

I’m not suggesting JSN won’t finish as a top-12 WR, but he’s currently being drafted as the No. 3 WR overall, behind Ja’Marr Chase and Puka Nacua. If you’re in the camp that he can finish as the No. 1 WR overall, it’s a good pick, but as I said, that feels highly unlikely.

Never mind the fact that JSN will now be the focal point of opposing defensive co-ordinators, who have studied him all off-season, but the change from Klint Kubiak to Brian Fleury as his offensive co-ordinator feels like we’re expecting an awful lot from him with a new play-caller.

Round 2: RB Jeremiyah Love, ARZ

This isn’t an indictment of Love’s talent, but the situation he enters as a rookie.

There’s no doubt Love is going to get a heavy workload in the run and pass game, but it’s easy to question how much opportunity he’ll have to run because of the unfavourable run scripts that the Cards will be in this season.

There is a very favourable recent history of RBs who were drafted inside the top 10 finishing as an RB1 in their rookie season: Bijan Robinson (RB9), Saquon Barkley (RB1), Leonard Fournette (RB8), Christian McCaffrey (RB11), Ezekiel Elliot (RB2), Todd Gurley (RB7) and Trent Richardson (RB8) are the last seven examples.

The issue for me is Love is currently being drafted as the RB8 at the top of the second round. That feels like his absolute best-case scenario this season, so I think we’re more likely set up to be disappointed than be pleasantly surprised.

If Love slips to the back of the second round — in the RB13ish range — then I am OK drafting him, but this is way too rich.

Round 3: RB Travis Etienne Jr., NO

It’s really tough to get behind Travis Etienne, especially at his current price. He has simply been an inefficient RB since entering the NFL, and if Alvin Kamara wasn’t kept around, you may be able to justify his current ranking as the RB15.

However, Kamara was extended, and now that seems to limit ETN’s upside as a pass-catcher in the Saints offence.

Although ETN was paid as an RB1 this off-season, here’s the other issue: Kellen Moore has made his name as a historically pass-heavy play-caller, further muddying ETN’s opportunity-share outlook.

This just reeks of a disappointment for fantasy. A low-end RB2? Sure, but he’s being drafted as a borderline RB1.

Round 4: RB Quinshon Judkins, CLE

Quinshon was going in the sixth round of drafts not long ago, and I didn’t love him then. Now he’s crept into the fourth round and, like Love, doesn’t warrant that price given his situation.

Judkins is a classic two-down RB who won’t be in a position to leverage that role late in games.

I’m honestly more keen on drafting Dylan Sampson late in drafts instead, because of the pass-heavy scripts that the Browns will be in.

He’s being drafted as the RB22, which isn’t bad, but I’d much rather wait a round to draft David Montgomery, Bhayshul Tuten or D’Andre Swift.

Round 5: RB Jadarian Price, SEA

Is he the lead back? Is he not?

I’m going to go on a limb and say Price will, in fact, start the year as the Hawks’ top RB, but there has to be concern about the way the Hawks have deployed their backfield, going back to last season.

Ken Walker and Zach Charbonnet shared the load last season, which was nice for Charbs owners, who reaped the benefit of 12 touchdowns.

While Price could see a lot of the workload in between the 20s, I do fear the presence of George Holani and eventually Charbonnet when he returns from his ACL injury.

Of course, Price could play himself into a heavy workload, but he feels risky right now, especially in a round that includes Montgomery, Swift, Jaylen Waddle, Luther Burden, Emeka Egbuka, Mike Evans, Tyler Warren, and a heavily discounted Jalen Hurts.

I’d rather have any of them over the rookie.

Round 6: RB RJ Harvey, DEN

JK Dobbins is the locked-in RB1 in this offence, and rookie Jonah Coleman projects to own some share of the snaps.

Why Harvey is going in the sixth round right now is head-scratching, especially after an underwhelming rookie season.

His best bet to fantasy relevance is likely as a pass-catcher, but I’m just not sold on his outlook with the addition of Waddle and what that could mean for a more vertical Broncos’ pass attack.

Round 7: WR Alec Pierce, IND

There’s no denying the upside that Pierce presents, but the concern around his ankle is real right now, and he could begin the season on the PUP.

He was paid as a WR1 this season, but it remains to be seen whether the Colts will actually use him like the weapon they paid him to be.

If his route tree is limited again, I’ll be even more bearish on his outlook.

Daniel Jones’ return from an Achilles injury also scares me as far as how much the Colts will attack downfield. If it’s more short and intermediate passes, Pierce feels like a boom-or-bust play each week.

Round 8: WR Michael Wilson, ARZ

One of the sticking points in discussions this off-season has been Wilson’s numbers when Marvin Harrison Jr. is on the field.

He exploded last season, but that was all while Marv was injured. He’s never been a focal point of the offence when Marv is healthy.

His upside case is that he plays on an offence that will be throwing a lot, and he clearly demonstrated a rapport with Jacoby Brissett. However, as is the glass-half-empty look for all Cardinals pass-catchers this season, Brissett likely won’t be the QB all season.

Can you really trust Wilson with Gardner Minshew or Carson Beck throwing the ball in the second half of the season? I think not.

He’s also going in a juicy round that includes some great QB and WR values, such as Jaxson Dart, Trevor Lawrence, Parker Washington and Ricky Pearsall.

Selecting Wilson just doesn’t make sense with those other names on the board.

Round 9: TE George Kittle, SF

I’m going against the grain on this one.

I understand the argument of many fantasy experts around Kittle, who looks great in his return from an Achilles injury, but I fear that we’re hoping for more than what the 33-year-old will actually be able to deliver.

Kittle’s superpower has been yards after the catch, and coming off an Achilles injury doesn’t bode well for that. You’re drafting him hoping that he scores a lot, which is entirely possible, but I feel that those hopes took a hit when the Niners signed Mike Evans.

I’d argue that CMC and Evans are ahead of Kittle on the red zone pecking order.

Could he be a weekly touchdown-dependent play? Yes, but you could also say the same about Mark Andrews, who is also going in the ninth round. Not to mention, Dalton Kincaid is going in the ninth round currently.

Sorry, but I just can’t get behind Kittle this year.

Thanks for reading and, as always, have a great day.

Josh