The Fall-Off?

By: Josh Frey-Sam

Good morning, and welcome back.

I don’t know about you, but I’m already itching for fantasy football.

I’ll be back to writing regularly going forward, with more of a focus on fantasy football. I think that is where I leaned as the season went on last year, and after some positive feedback, I really want to help you all this season.

We’re starting on a bit of a dimmer note.

Two of this year’s top running backs, Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey, are the players I want to highlight as potential disappointments for this season.

To be clear, I haven’t taken much of a stance on whether I will actually be open to investing in either of these players yet, but historical data suggests we might be better off avoiding them at their current cost.

You might remember that last year I wrote a similar piece about Saquon Barkley, who was coming off a monster workload in 2024. It was for that reason that I cautioned everyone about drafting him.

JT and CMC have something in common entering 2026: they are both coming off seasons in which they logged more than 360 touches.

Taylor garnered 369 touches and finished as the RB2 overall. McCaffrey had 413 opportunities — the most of his career — and ended as the RB1 overall.

Taylor lived up to his high ADP near the top of the draft, while McCaffrey, who had a ton of concern surrounding him after an injury-plagued 2024 and was being drafted near the 1-2 turn , exceeded his ADP.

Now, they enter dangerous territory, as players coming off 369+ touch seasons have not fared well the following year.

Here’s a few who you may remember recently:

Saquon Barkley

RB2 overall in 2024, RB14 overall in 2025

Josh Jacobs

RB3 overall in 2022, RB28 in 2023

Derrick Henry

RB4 overall in 2022, RB8 in 2023

RB3 overall in 2020, RB22 in 2021

Najee Harris

RB3 overall in 2021, RB14 in 2022

Jonathan Taylor

RB1 overall in 2021, RB33 in 2022

Christian McCaffrey

RB1 overall in 2018, RB54 in 2019

David Johnson

RB1 overall in 2015, RB114 in 2016

The only player to curb this trend recently was Ezekiel Elliot, who had an RB5 overall campaign in 2017 and followed it up with an RB3 finish in 2018.

Many of these players’ disappointing follow-ups were attributed to injury.

Could it be a coincidence that they fell short of the mark the following season? Perhaps. For example, it’s tough to blame David Johnson for tearing up his knee in the first game of 2016.

But it’s happened enough times that I think it’s fair to call this a concerning trend, rather than a string of coincidences.

So, how does this apply to this season, and what’s my take?

Taylor is being drafted near the top of the first round again this season, with an ADP of 6.3 on Sleeper.

If you’re sitting with the fourth pick and he’s there, it might be hard not to take him. But, if I did take him, I might be looking to deal him within the first 4-5 weeks of the season — this would be especially true in dynasty, where you could get a haul for him that includes picks + a player that could continue to help you in the meantime.

In re-draft, the time to strike a trade could be made clearer if Daniel Jones happens to start the season on the PUP (which I don’t anticipate). In that scenario, Taylor would likely get a monster workload in the first month of the season and then be ripe for trading.

Meanwhile, CMC is going even higher than last year. He is currently being drafted in the middle of the first round, with an ADP of 6.9.

I have much greater conviction with my stance on CMC: I will not be drafting him this season.

Of course, there are exceptions to both players. If I held the 1.08, for example, and Taylor fell to me, I would draft him without hesitation, and honestly, he might be a hold — although I would still explore trades.

With CMC, I would be willing to take him if I held the picks at the turn. But again, I would explore trades rather quickly.

Thanks for reading and, as always, have a great day.

Josh