T-Time

By: Josh Frey-Sam

I had a friend in high school whose nickname was Trevor. Now that I think about it, I’m not sure how he got that. We also called him Animal. That one, I know how he got, but that’s a story for another day.

How does that relate to today’s Brief? Well, it doesn’t really— other than I was reminded of my old buddy when I thought about this topic.

I want to talk about why Trevor Lawrence could be the quarterback steal in fantasy drafts this season.

First, let’s just get it out in the open that the Jacksonville Jaguars’ franchise signal-caller has been underwhelming since arriving in the NFL.

But he’s also been dealt a less than favourable hand. He’s entering his fifth season and is on his third offensive coordinator/ play-caller.

That’s not easy on anyone, much less a kid who was the No. 1 overall pick and touted as the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck.

I’m not giving him a free pass, though. He hasn’t been good enough, and last season was especially disappointing as he underperformed and dealt with injury.

I believe we’re in store for a better outing in 2025. A healthy and reenergized TLaw, who is entering the best situation of his career.

TLaw’s best finish was QB8 in 2022. He also finished just outside of QB1 territory in 2023, ranking as QB13 overall.

He missed just one game during those two seasons, which speaks to the fact that he can be a solid asset as long as he’s healthy. Remember, he dealt with a concussion, should sprain and a high-ankle sprain last year, which significantly hindered him.

Coaching

His breakout campaign begins with new head coach Liam Coen, who arrives in Jacksonville after one season as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offensive coordinator.

Last year, Coen helped Baker Mayfield to a career year — 4,500 yards, 41 passing touchdowns, 106.8 passer rating and 53.9 per cent success rate — and a QB4 overall finish in fantasy.

Bucs fans were worried whether the offence would remain strong after Dave Canales left for the Panthers’ head coaching job, and it only got better under Coen.

He could have the same type of impact in Jacksonville, where there is a veteran QB and a pair of solid — and young — receiving weapons in place.

Situation/Weapons

That brings us to what’s going to be around TLaw this season.

Brian Thomas Jr. is on the brink of stardom after a sensational rookie season. He is the clear WR1 in this offence and has already established himself as a terrific top option in any offence.

Then there’s Travis Hunter, whom the Jags traded up to select with the No. 2 pick in the draft. The kid is just a ball player. The fact that he’s the secondary option in this offence could get dangerous in a hurry for opposing defences.

The offensive line isn’t elite, but it’s comfortably above average after shoring up right guard with Patrick Mekari in free agency.

The running game is the biggest question mark. Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby were an uninspiring duo a year ago, and the Jags added rookie Bhayshul Tuten in the draft but he has ball-security issues that could prevent him from seeing the field.

If the Jags can get a bounce-back campaign from Etienne, that would help Lawrence out tremendously.

The one negative is that this offence lost Evan Engram this off-season, but obviously, the management and coaching staff have a plan to move forward without him.

There is enough surrounding TLaw to support a top QB.

Defence

Part of Baker Mayfield’s career numbers last season was that he was compensating for a below-average defence.

It could be a similar case for Lawrence. The Jags defence was one of the worst unit in football last season, constantly putting pressure on the offence to perform.

Now, I think the Jags will improve under new defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile, but it projects as an average unit at best.

That should leave plenty of reason for Lawrence to sling the rock.

Schedule

There’s plenty of reason for optimism here.

Eleven of the Jaguars’ 17 contests come against teams that were below average against quarterbacks in fantasy football last season.

Those matchups include the Panthers (32nd), Bengals (27th), Texans (21st) x2, Chiefs (18th), Rams (25th), Raiders (25th), Titans (18th) x2 and Colts (20th) x2.

Ability

Lawrence’s potential separator when it comes to fantasy football could be his mobility.

He’s a tremendous athlete and has the potential to provide legitimate value as a runner.

In 2022 and 2023, he rushed for 630 yards and nine touchdowns — it pales in comparison to guys like Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels, but it’s nothing to ignore.

…

If nothing else, TLaw projects as a solid value this season. He’s being drafted in the 11th round right now, around the likes of JJ McCarthy, Tua Tagovailoa and Cam Ward.

There’s a lot of upside and little downside with the investment you’d be making.

Thanks for reading and, as always, have a great day.

Josh