Summer Series: New England Patriots

By: Josh Frey-Sam

The New England Patriots are among the most fascinating teams in the NFL this season.

Much of that is due in large part to how difficult they are to project.

The Patriots have been completely overhauled and, in my opinion, are the easy runner-ups to the Chicago Bears for this year’s off-season champions.

A new coaching regime took over, and with a franchise quarterback already in place and tons of cap space to work with, the club wasted little time screwing around and doled out a league-leading $360.8M in total contracts to remake this roster top to bottom.

Welcome to the Back Bacon Brief summer series, where I talk to a local media member from all 32 NFL teams to get an all-encompassing preview about each club heading into the 2025-26 season

Today, we look at the New England Patriots, and I spoke with local reporter Alex Barth (@RealAlexBarth on X) to find out everything going on in Foxborough.

You can listen to the full interview here.

The Patriots have won a combined eight games over the last two seasons and have mustered just one winning record in the last five years.

Simply put, this team needed a new, proven leader, and the easy answer became their former linebacker Mike Vrabel.

“Vrabel has definitely injected some life into the program,” said Barth.

“He’s all over the place. I think the problem with Jarrod Mayo was he was a little insulated,” he said. “Mike Vrabel’s working with the offence, he’s working with the defence, he’s working with special teams, he’s working with the best players on the roster, he’s working with the guys at the bottom of the roster. They’re running periods on offence where it’s against air, but they have some other players and coaches lined up to simulate the defence… and Mike Vrabel is playing middle linebacker and he’s calling out checks, so he’s getting a good view of the offence.”

Vrabel surrounded himself with other proven leaders, hiring four former head coaches as assistant coaches on the staff.

One of those is offensive co-ordinator Josh McDaniels, who will be under the most watchful eye of any of his colleagues.

There’s a consensus feeling that the Pats’ defence — which Barth said will be called by co-ordinator Terrell Williams, not Vrabel — is going to take a significant jump in 2025. The secondary feels nearly complete with CB Carlton Davis added to the mix, and the front-seven was bolstered in acquiring DT Milton Williams and LB Robert Spillane.

I believe the Pats could find a way into top-10 territory under the tutelage of Vrabel and Williams, so the attention will be squarely on the offence.

Barth said the biggest thing that McDaniels is tasked with is finding a way to harness Maye’s aggressive play style and limit the turnovers.

In 12 starts last year, Maye threw 10 interceptions and fumbled nine times.

“The question is… can you hone in some of that recklessness without handcuffing the guy and taking away that big-play ability, the mindset?” Barth said.

Expect a typical McDaniels’ style of offence, including multiple sets, a lot of two-tight-end formations, rotating numerous running backs and tailoring some components to Maye’s style.

One of the most interesting parts of our conversation was fantasy-related. I have assumed all off-season that rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson would eventually supersede Rhamondre Stevenson as the main back in this offence, which made him one of my favourite picks for this season.

Not so fast, Barth told me.

“(McDaniels has) never really had a bellcow, a guy that’s had like 300 touches in a season. He’s going to break it up. Usually they break it up early-down and passing-down. For people familiar with the Patriots: LeGarrett Blount-James White, Antowaine Smith-Kevin Faulk,” he said."

“You look at the way they’re set up now. Rhamondre Stevenson is your early-down back, TreVeyon Henderson is your passing-down back, and then Antonio Gibson is Rex Burkhead-ish, can kind of back up both spots because he’s a pretty versatile player.”

So, while Henderson projects to be on the field less than Stevenson this season, it doesn’t mean he will garner fewer touches. It happened with James White in 2018, as he logged 181 touches, 1,176 scrimmage yards and 12 touchdowns (RB8 finish in fantasy) while serving as the third-down back.

“I don’t know that anybody is going to take over this backfield, especially not this year with Henderson as a rookie. I don’t think you get to that level. To me, it’s about who’s there in the impact moments,” he said.

Noted that McDaniels loves to run the ball inside the five-yard line, which would lend to favouring points for Stevenson or perhaps even Drake Maye. In sum, it sounds like the Pats could once again be an unreliable team for fantasy.

Back to real life.

I put Barth on the spot near the end of our interview, asking him to identify a metric in which he thinks the Pats will improve in this season":

“I would hope yards-per-play on first down,” he said. “That’s something that’s really killed them since Josh left. They’ve been one of the worst third-down teams in the league, but if you look at what’s behind that… they’re in (3rd-and-long) a lot, and a lot of that is they’ve stalled out on first down quite a bit. McDaniels is a big stay on schedule, that nickel and dime offence, I think they’re going to be a better first-down team and I think that’s going to elevate the rest of the offence.”

Then I asked him to provide a metric that he thinks the team could underwhelm. For that one, he quickly identified the pass rush.

The unit is certainly more talented than last year, but it is still lacking a difference maker.

“I don’t think they’ll be bad. I think they’ll be better than last year. But I think the pass rush has been hyped up because it is better than last year, but that’s not that big of a bar,” he said.

Barth sided with the over on 7.5 wins, and while I think I will ultimately stay away from it, I would agree.

The Pats’ schedule doesn’t make you shake in your boots, and they should find themselves in many games where they have a chance in the fourth quarter.

Thanks for reading and, as always, have a great day.

Josh