Stay away from Saquon

By: Josh Frey-Sam

Allow me to backpedal a little.

I recently wrote about which running backs I thought have the best chance at finishing this season as the RB1 overall in fantasy football. One of the three names I mentioned was Saquon Barkley.

While I still believe the Philadelphia Eagles’ star running back is absolutely in that conversation, my stance on him has changed a bit.

On Tuesday, The Athletic’s senior editor, Jim Ayello, began his column with some bold advice to fantasy footballers, regarding Barkley:

“…I’m not even sure he should be selected in the first two rounds,” he wrote about the player who is the consensus 1.1 draft pick this season.

At first blush, it’s natural to think Ayello was looking for some extra clicks in June. But I have to say, there’s a big part of me that agrees with his hot take.

FYI - you can read Ayello’s story here.

Here’s where I stand on Barkley: I won’t be drafting him this season, but I get it if you do. Just know, history is not in your favour.

Saquon is coming off one of the greatest single-season rushing performances of all time. He was seemingly unstoppable behind the Eagles’ massive offensive line, finishing with 2,005 ground yards and 13 touchdowns while averaging 5.8 yards per carry.

Just silly.

The part that gets lost entering this season — and the entire basis for Ayello’s column — is that Barkley logged 345 attempts during the regular season, and that number jumps to 436 (!!) if you include the playoffs.

He tied 2014 DeMarco Murray for the most single-season rushing attempts by a player this century.

What happened to Murray in 2015? He rushed for 702 yards (averaged 3.6 yards per carry) and six touchdowns across 15 contests, finishing as the RB15 on the season. Not completely useless, but certainly underwhelming and not what you drafted him to be.

That’s just a one-off, though, right? Barkley is a beast, so that wouldn’t happen to him… right?

Well, that’s where it gets interesting.

Take a look at the other 11 running backs who have logged 400+ carries in a season, their fantasy finish, and then how they fared the following season, since 2000.

It’s funny, I’m a little mad at myself.

A player coming off a season with a heavy workload is something I’ve warned other people about in the past. It just never clicked with Saquon— he’s an athletic freak, fresh off a new payday and running in the same offence behind nearly the same offensive line.

This isn’t about a player’s situation, though. More simply, it’s about the body being able to withstand the same beating two years in a row.

That’s what happened to many of the other 11 running backs on that list.

Murray played in 15 games but only started eight of them in 2015; Shaun Alexander played in just 10 games in 2006; Larry Johnson played in just eight contests in 2007; Jamal Lewis tore his ACL in 2001, then, after toting the rock 401 times in 2003, only appeared in 12 games in 2004; Corey Dillon appeared in 12 games and started just 10 in 2005; Edgerrin James saw action in just six games in 2001; Curtis Martin played in 12 games in 2005; and Arian Foster logged eight games in 2013.

The other interesting part about this is the age of those running backs. We’d like to believe Saquon is still in his prime, but he’s right around the same age those other backs were when they received a heavy workload and then were expected to produce again the following year.

Here’s where I can ride the fence on this a bit… you can make the argument that none of those other running backs had a better situation than Saquon in their following year. That’s, in part, why I still think he’s a candidate to be the RB1 at the end of this season. And while the track record would suggest he’s more prone to wearing down in 2025, injuries can happen to anyone.

There have also been plenty of players who have logged 350+ carries, then come back with another stellar season — check out 2002-06 Tiki Barber. What a freak.

Having said that, it’s really tough to ignore the track record.

Where I have a little more conviction on this topic is in dynasty leagues.

My advice: it might be a good time to trade Saquon for an absolute haul, especially if you can get the first-overall pick (Ashton Jeanty) out of it.

Thanks for reading and, as always, have a great day.

Josh