Second-half fantasy primer: RBs

By: Josh Frey-Sam

It can be tough to find daylight as a manager in need of a running back.

I’m experiencing that in many of my leagues currently, as I load up for my playoff runs.

It feels like few options can be trusted on a week-to-week basis, and people are seeing that and choosing to dig their heels in on deals — it’s going to take some big pieces to acquire a solid rusher.

There’s still hope, however.

As with any position, there are always diamonds in the rough and bearish players that can be had at a discount. Narratives change quickly on these guys, though, so if you see something you like, it’s best to strike immediately.

Today, we look at the second half outlook for running backs.

Rest of season strength of schedule rankings

Elite: Chase Brown (CIN)

This season hasn’t gone to plan for Chase Brown owners, but the second half could be a different tune. As long as Joe Flacco is the quarterback, Brown will be playable. Of course, he won’t be as good as he was with Joe Burrow, but the situation and his schedule should maintain a solid RB2 status.

Good schedule honourable mentions (green = players I like. red = players I don’t like) : Quinshon Judkins (CLE), Rhamondre Stevenson/TreVeyon Henderson (NE), Kimani Vidal/Omarion Hampton (LAC), DeVon Achane (MIA), Josh Jacobs (GB), Isiah Pacheco/Kareem Hunt/Brashard Smith (KC), Alvin Kamara (NO)

Horrible: Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG)

What’s funny is Tracy was the biggest waiver wire pick up this week — and maybe even of the year at RB — and he’s already a sell. Before Cam Skattebo took over the backfield, Tracy was not efficient with his opportunities. His -.12 EPA/ rush ranks 44th out of 58 RBs with at least 25 carries, and his 31.11% success rate ranks 52nd. Of course, I placed a bid for Tracy this week, but I wasn’t aggressive in my pursuit. The Giants are likely to be trailing in most contests the rest of the season, leaving Tracy as nothing more than a mid-level flex option. Here’s the hope if you own him: he has a strong week against the 49ers, and you sell him to a desperate team. His playoff schedule — WAS, MIN, @LV — isn’t the worst, but Tracy doesn’t appeal to me.

Bad schedule honourable mentions: Bijan Robinson (ATL), Rico Dowdle/Chuba Hubbard (CAR), Jordan Mason/Aaron Jones (MIN), JK Dobbins/RJ Harvey (DEN), Tony Pollard (TEN), Breece Hall (NYJ), Kyren Williams (LAR), Saquon Barkley (PHI)

Breece Hall is the guy we will have to keep an eye on at the real trade deadline. If the rumours with the Chiefs come to fruition, that would probably be the ideal scenario — he’d be the clear workhorse in a potent offence that has a favourable schedule. The less ideal scenario would be the Chargers, as I expect Hampton to return in time for the fantasy playoffs, and Vidal is playing his way into maintaining a snap share. An interesting — although unlikely — landing spot would be New England. As a Henderson believer, I’d be on bridge watch. That would be a gut punch for Stevenson owners, too.

Buy, stash/hold, sell

Buy: Derrick Henry (BAL), Chase Brown (CIN)

Realistically, this might be your last week to buy low on Henry. The Ravens (with Lamar Jackson) get Miami tonight, and Henry should return to form. Baltimore also has a schedule that should see them leading/competing in most games going forward, which means Henry won’t be scripted out of games. After CIN in the first round of playoffs, Henry gets two tough matchups (NE, @GB), but there will always be an opportunity for the King to have a solid day as long as Lamar is under center.

Brown could be a buy if you’re in need of an RB, and he’s certainly a solid hold at this point. There’s a possibility for Brown to deliver major dividends if Burrow comes back. He could provide a stable presence in your RB2 slot, then potentially emerge as the RB1 that he was expected to be in the playoffs. When Burrow is in, Brown gets a boatload of work as a pass-catcher. His playoff schedule is also fantastic: BAL, @MIA, ARZ.

 Stash: Ashton Jeanty (LVR)

There’s no sense in trying to deal Jeanty at this point. He has no value, but his upside remains intriguing with the return of Brock Bowers.The Raiders’ passing attack, in theory, should improve with the return of their star tight end, which should create opportunities for Jeanty.

Sell: Travis Etienne Jr. (JAX)

This week will be critical for ETN owners, as the week out of a bye can be a preview of the second half of the season.

There are two ways to look at ETN: he’s an EXCELLENT buy-low option, or he’s a guy that you need to ship ASAP. There’s no doubt ETN has been a pleasant surprise this season, as he’s largely returned to form from two seasons ago, but there’s a big piece of me that’s worried about his ROS outlook. After four straight double-digit outputs to begin the year, he’s produced three single-digit weeks in a row — albeit against tough matchups. The road gets a bit easier, but it’s not a home run.

The part that concerns me the most is whether we see an uptick in usage for rookie Bhayshul Tuten, who has flashed at times with limited opportunity. There’s also fellow rookie LaQuint Allen, who could eat into ETN’s snap share a bit. Frankly, a lot of this is just feel from me — the numbers and ETN’s play would suggest the Jags continue to ride him, but we also know the team has high hopes for Tuten.

Thanks for reading and, as always, have a great day.

Josh