Second-half fantasy primer: QBs

By: Josh Frey-Sam

Your playoff push starts now.

While everyone else is focused on surviving Week 9, the sharp fantasy players have been looking toward the postseason and championship weekend for weeks.

Keep in mind, your fantasy trade deadline is probably only a couple of weeks away.

Most people like to wait until as late as possible to make any moves, because they want a clear picture of whether they can contend for a championship. I like to try to jump a bit earlier than the days leading up to the deadline, as the price of players tends to go up the closer you get to the date.

This week in particular can be a shrewd time to strike. Narratives have solidified around players with injuries and underperformers, so there are some opportunities to buy low and sell high.

Today, we’ll start with QBs.

Now, unless you’re in a 2QB/super flex league, you probably don’t need to stress too much about this position.

The reality is — and this is why I tend to avoid drafting QBs early — you can find a decent option to stream most weeks. In saying that, it is nice to find a guy you can trust week in and week out, so let’s look at who I like.

Rest of season strength of schedule ranking

Elite: Jaxson Dart (NYG) & Joe Flacco (CLE)

You wish Dart still had Malik Nabers to throw to, because the Giants have a schedule that is juicy for fantasy but bad for the team. They should be trailing a lot, and especially with the injury to Cam Skattebo, Dart will be forced to throw a ton.

Dart’s playoff matchups: Washington, Minnesota, @Las Vegas

Dak Prescott might be the only quarterback with a better situation than Joe Flacco. Two elite WRs and a bad defence that will require him to continue throwing the ball 35+ times per game. Flacco can and will get a lot of people to the fantasy playoffs. The only problem is that we don’t know if he will be the guy once the postseason rolls around, as Joe Burrow is expected to return mid-December.

Trading for Flacco could be huge, but you could also find yourself on the waiver wire at the most important time of year.

If Flacco remains the guy, it’s sensational: Baltimore, @Miami, Arizona

Good schedule honourable mentions (red means I don’t like this player, green means I like): JJ McCarthy (MIN), Lamar Jackson (BAL), Tua Tagovailoa (MIA), Jared Goff (DET), Jordan Love (GB), Dillon Gabriel (CLE), Justin Fields (NYJ), Jalen Hurts (PHI), Sam Darnold (SEA)

Horrible: Geno Smith (LVR), CJ Stroud (HOU), Cam Ward (TEN)

Odds are you weren’t going to look at Geno or Ward anyway, but Stroud potentially presents an interesting opportunity. Stroud has finished as QB1 in Week 6 and QB11 in Week 8, and with Nico Collins coming back, he’s gaining a bit of buzz.

If you’ve stashed Stroud this long, I would hold him for one more week to see if he continues this play against a tough Denver defence. If he does, it’s a perfect opportunity to sell high to a QB-needy team.

Bad schedule honourable mentions: Trevor Lawrence (JAX), Patrick Mahomes (KC), Bo Nix (DEN), Daniel Jones (IND), Justin Herbert (LAC), Dak Prescott (DAL)

The reality is not many people are going to care about the schedule for Mahomes, Herbert and Prescott — they are throwing the ball a ton and throwing the hell out of it.

Jones is the interesting one here, in my opinion. He’s the QB6 (!!) on the year but is going to enter a gauntlet after the Colts’ Week 12 bye (and also the week after the trade deadline): @KC, HOU, @JAX, @SEA (playoff), SF (playoff), JAX (playoff),

I’m not firm on selling him — this offence has been too damn efficient — but if you have other options available and need to shore up a weak spot on your roster, dealing him could be a shrewd move to make.

Buy, hold and sell

Buy: Jordan Love & Baker Mayfield

Love has been quiet enough for fantasy that managers would be willing to part with him. In reality, he’s been one of the best QBs in football this season, and the fantasy production will follow soon. The schedule is solid from here on out (@DEN, @CHI, BAL in the playoffs), and with Christian Watson returning to the fold, this Packers offence can reach a scary level in the second half of the season.

I’m not sure how many people are scrambling to sell Mayfield, but this is as low as his stock is getting this season. He’s posted his worst finish of the year in back-to-back weeks and is now on a bye. Strike now. No, Mike Evans won’t be around, but the Bucs’ offence still has plenty of mouths to feed. Plus, the schedule is beautiful the rest of the season, espcially in playoffs (ATL, @CAR, @MIA).

Hold/stash: Brock Purdy

Remember this guy? Purdy is going to come back in a much better situation than when he left. Juaun Jennings and George Kittle are back, and Ricky Pearsall hopefully isn’t far behind. Purdy is constantly overlooked in fantasy, but can be a guy you win with. The late bye (Week 14) is manageable, and then he returns for a favourable playoff stretch: TEN, @IND, CHI.

Sell: Bo Nix

I have a ton of Bo Nix stock. I’m not even sure I will listen to my own advice here, but I can’t ignore the opportunity here.

Nix is scorching. He’s the QB1 and QB6 the last two weeks, respectively, and finding that groove that we saw him strike in the second half of last season. The narrative around Nix could change a bit by the time the Broncos reach their bye in Week 12, however. They are @HOU, and vs. KC in two of the next three weeks.

Perhaps the Broncos’ offence is reaching a place where Nix becomes a must-start each week, but I’d say it’s tough to expect him to be an elite top-seven option each week.

And the playoff schedule is nasty: GB, JAX, @KC

You could sell Nix at his peak value right now.

Playoff MVP: Jared Goff

Goff is my pick for playoff MVP, and is a guy I would trade for in a heartbeat.

The Goff experience can be a frustrating one at times. It feels like he’s either elite or a bum, and there’s no in-between.

I think we’ll see the former when the fantasy postseason rolls around.

The schedule is @LAR, PIT and @MIN. That’s three dome games, against three beatable secondaries, during a time in which the Lions will be jostling for playoff seeding.

Goff was already an MVP of sorts last season, too, finishing as the QB2, 3 and 8 in the playoffs.

Running backs next.

Thanks for reading and, as always, have a great day.

Josh