Rookies at first blush (pt. 1)

Projecting fantasy impact of the first-year QBs and WRs

By: Josh Frey-Sam

The NFL draft is over and now it’s time to turn my attention to the real sickos who are already doing rookie drafts in dynasty leagues.

In the last couple of weeks, several people have asked me how I would rank the players in this year’s class and who they should have their eye on as rookie drafts heat up.

We’ll take an all-encompassing look at all of that this week.

For now, I want to talk about every rookie who I feel is notable for dynasty drafts and what you should expect from them. We start with QBs and WRs.

Let’s just call these my takes at first blush. We’ll get more into it later on.

Note: These players are listed in no particular order.

Quarterbacks

Cam Ward: The No. 1 QB in every draft. Don’t hesitate, just trust the talent. The Titans will continue to build around Cam, so temper your expectations for this season. Could eventually be a low-end QB1.

Jaxson Dart: I don’t think the gap between Ward and Dart is that big. Dart’s mobility makes him an intriguing option. If he plays, you can assume it won’t be until the second half of the season. The Giants could take the same approach the Vikings had planned to (but were forced to) take with JJ McCarthy.

Jalen Milroe: Fortune favours the bold. This pick could blow up in your face, but the upside is MASSIVE. Someone will take the risk with Milroe, and I would recommend that it’s you if you can afford to do so. The only problem is he’s a stash until further notice.

Tyler Shough: My guy. I think Shough can be a very good quarterback in this league, although I do wonder how relevant hell be for fantasy. He is mobile, so you could see Baker Mayfield-esk rushing stats from him. Working in Shough’s favour is that he will play this season, unlike some other guys on this list.

Will Howard: One of my favourite picks from a real football perspective this year. Howard is a notch below Milroe, but in that same bucket of a stash player who might not ever pay dividends. Trust me when I say Howard can move. He’s not Josh Allen, but he’s got a similar build and isn’t shy to take off.

Wide receivers

Tetairoa McMillan: Not a huge fan of the player, and I can’t say I’m a huge fan of the situation he’s in. I just question his upside with Bryce Young throwing him the ball and Jalen Croker, Xavier Legette, Adam Thielen and newly signed Hunter Renfrow in the same room. However, if there’s a guy to be featured, it would be him.

Travis Hunter: Decisions, decisions. Might be a wait-and-see guy until we hear how Liam Coen plans to deploy him. Keep in mind, he’s the clear WR2 in Jacksonville… for now.

Matthew Golden: Love the player, but I question the situation. Tons of mouths to feed in Green Bay, and Jordan Love has yet to force-feed a WR since taking over at QB. Golden could be that guy, though. Also important to note that Golden could be THE GUY in a year’s time.

Jayden Higgins: My favourite receiver in this class.However, Nico Collins is the clear No. 1, while Christian Kirk and fellow rookie Jaylin Noel are also hoping to get the ball. Higgins will start and could be in line for some heavy targets if Collins goes down. I just don’t know what his path is to be featured in this offence.

Jack Bech: The easy sleeper pick of this class. Bech will start in Vegas, and there isn’t much competition for looks in the WR room. Of course, this offence will run through Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty, but Bech could quickly turn into WR1 for Geno Smith.

Tre Harris: The Chargers are going to pound the rock over and over again, but Tre Harris is going to eventually be a full-fledged starter in this offence. He and Ladd McConkey are the two best receivers in that room, and I could see Justin Herbert looking Harris’ way a lot.

Luther Burden III: The talent is undeniable. The only question is opportunity in this loaded Bears offence. Burden projects as a stash that could pay great dividends in a year or two.

Elic Ayomanor: The Canadian. And he’s a dark horse. There’s a path to Ayomanor seeing serious snaps in this Titans offence, and the talent would suggest he can produce. To me, he could develop into a low-end WR2 for fantasy.

Jaylin Noel: There’s a lot of competition for targets, but Noel could very well end up being WR2 to Nico Collins this year. His route running and shiftiness make him an intriguing player.

Emeka Egbuka: He’ll compete for snaps with Jalen McMillan this season, but Egbuka, to me, projects as a 75/800/5 kind of guy. Love him for real football, not sure about fantasy.

Jaylen Royals: Another guy you could get late in drafts who could be huge for you one day. Royals has been likened to his new teammate Rashee Rice, and although it could take some time for him to make an impact, it could be a big one when he does.

Kyle Williams: Williams could very well start this season, but I look at him in a similar light as Egbuka — a guy who will help the Pats win games, but I don’t know will light up fantasy boards. He’s a late-round flier, nonetheless.

Tory Horton: Don’t expect anything from him this year, but Horton could eventually rise to a prominent role in the Seahawks’ offence. A DEEP sleeper who will likely go undrafted.

We’ve got RBs and TEs tomorrow.

Thanks for reading and, as always, have a great day.

Josh