NFL Draft bets

By: Josh Frey-Sam

Welcome to one of my favourite weeks on the NFL calendar — draft week.

My newsletter content for the next seven days will revolve around the NFL Draft, which begins Thursday.

So you can know what to expect: Thursday’s brief will be my final mock draft; Friday will be my thoughts and analysis on the first round; I will do the same on Saturday for the second and third rounds; and Monday, we’ll look at some of my favourite classes to come out of this year’s draft.

Today is a different beat, however. Those who know me best know I’m a betting man, and you can bet I will have some money on the line Thursday.

If I can shamelessly plug another piece of content, I co-host a betting channel on YouTube called The Janitor’s Closet, where we outline our best bets in the MLB and NFL all year.

I mention that because if you are like me and want to toss some coin on the draft, we’ll be dropping a video later this week with a full rundown of every pick that I like this year. You can also subscribe so you get all of my plays when September rolls around 😉 

For my Back Bacon Brief subscribers, we’re going to keep this short and sweet, with my BEST BETS in the first round.

*Over 2.5 running backs selected

Explanation: Jeanty is going top-10, and I just don’t see Hampton getting out of the first round either. Henderson is the swinger here, and everything is pointing to him going much earlier than many had originally thought. He’s the Jahmyr Gibbs of this draft, and teams covet that.

*Jaxson Dart to be second QB selected

Explanation: Dart’s stock has pointed upward since we got into the thick of draft season. Meanwhile, Shedeur Sanders’ needle has trended a bit more downward. It’s clear that teams value Dart’s size and mobility, and I think we see a team trade up for him.

*Tyler Warren under 9.5

Explanation: The sense is Warren will go No. 7, 8 or 9. He’s one of the few blue-chippers in this draft, and I don’t know how teams would let him slide to double digits.

Here’s the next wave of plays that I feel strongly about:

*Cincinnati to draft offensive line

Note: Cincy could go in several directions with this pick, but, to me, it’s either EDGE or offensive line. We’ll place a small bet and go with the value here to potentially hit big.

*New Orleans to draft EDGE

Note: I originally had the Saints taking QB at No. 9, but I’m beginning to think they take one of these talented pass-rushers first, then look to trade back into the first round for a QB.

*Colston Loveland over 19.5

Note: The key hurdles are the Colts at No. 14 and the Seahawks at No. 18. Everyone has TE going to Indy, but they can address that in the second round. Meanwhile, Seattle needs to upgrade that offensive line before they worry about weapons.

*Kelvin Banks Jr. over 13.5 

Note: Banks could go as early as No. 11 to the Niners, and the Dolphins are also in play at No. 13, but I just think there are better options available, which will force him to slide.

We’re three sleeps away from the draft.

Thanks for reading and, as always, have a great day.

Josh