NFC win totals at first glance

By: Josh Frey-Sam

Last week, I detailed a few win totals from the AFC that caught my eye.

Let’s do the same for the NFC today. To be clear, I’m not placing any of these bets yet — that would be silly wth five months until the regular season begins.

These are just a few lines that piqued my interest for one reason or another, and that bettors should watch as we move closer to training camp:

Atlanta Falcons over/under 7.5

I can’t stand on either side with conviction right now, but this is one I will certainly watch as the offseason continues. The Falcons are quietly an intriguing team next season with Michael Penix Jr. set to begin his first full season as a starter.

I’m cautiously optimistic about the offence, given its minimal turnover, but the defence is where I begin to raise questions. This team needs to (finally!) draft a pass-rusher in the first round before I try to take the over seriously.

Atlanta has a schedule that could leave some opportunity. They will host Carolina, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, the Rams, Seattle, Buffalo, Miami and Washington — their toughest games will likely come at home.

On the road, they will face Carolina, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Arizona, San Francisco, New England, the Jets, Minnesota and Indianapolis — it could be worse.

Chicago Bears over/ under 8.5

The over will be a popular bet by the public.

I get it — it’s tough to look at everything the Bears have done this offseason and not feel optimistic that they have the talent and personnel to exceed this number.

Here’s where things get murky, though: six of the Bears’ contests with be against arguably the toughest division in football.

Beyond that, their home schedule looks encouraging: Cowboys, Giants, Saints, Browns, Steelers. Their road schedule is scary, though: Ravens, Bengals, Eagles, Commanders, 49ers, Raiders.

If I had a gun to my head, I’d probably bank on the talent coming together and take the over, but I’ve added this here in hopes you’ll read this and pump the brakes before betting on the Bears.

Detroit Lions under 10.5 wins

Here’s the deal — the Lions probably have a top-five roster this year.

They also lost their offensive and defensive coordinators, and a slew of position coaches this offseason. That’s not easy to come back from.

Last season was the “all-in” year from Detroit. They knew it was the last time they’d have those coordinators and that core together. It didn’t work out, and now they need to adjust while the rest of the division gets better.

Detroit’s home schedule? Meh. Chicago, Green Bay, Minnesota, Dallas, the Giants, Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay.

The road schedule? Treacherous. Chicago, Green Bay, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Washington, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Kansas City and the Rams.

This isn’t the same Lions team, and they shouldn’t be viewed as such.

FYI, the third iteration of my mock draft will be Saturday’s newsletter.

Thanks for reading and, as always, have a great day.

Josh