Mock draft 3.0 takeaways

By: Josh Frey-Sam

The third mock draft is usually the most notable of the four I do each year.

By this time, free agency has settled down, the owners' meetings have wrapped up, teams are visiting with players and I like to believe there’s a little more clarity on which prospects each organization are keying in on.

The final mock is certainly notable, as well — that’s the one where I have the most information to work with — but there’s something extra fun about 3.0. For whatever reason, I usually feel a bit more confident when predicting trades.

This one was a bear to complete, plain and simple. Now we can reflect on it.

Here are a few takeaways from my latest mock:

Positional breakdown: 3 QBs, 3 RBs, 2 WRs, 2 TEs, 7 OL, 3 IDL, 5 EDGE, 2 LB, 4 CBs, 1 S

Shedeur Sanders slides: My uncle DMd me shortly after I posted my mock draft on my Instagram story: “Nephew, why Shedeur at 24?”

This is perhaps the first thing people look for when viewing any mock draft this year. Sanders' range is so wide, and the grade on him varies so much by team, that it makes his stock difficult to predict. I had him dropping to 24 for a few reasons, the most notable of which is that I believe Jaxson Dart has passed him as QB2. Whether it’s the Saints, Steelers or some other team, it feels like we’re bound to see Dart’s name off the board before Sanders.

As I explained to my uncle, Shedeur’s most logical landing spot inside the top 10 right now feels like New Orleans. If he gets past them, the slide is on. Steelers HC Mike Tomlin values mobility at QB, which Dart possesses and Sanders does not.

However, there is a point at which Shedeur slides too far and then becomes a value for a QB-needy team. The Browns are just that, and with the 33rd pick as amo, they are in a prime position to nab him and pair him with his buddy Travis Hunter.

Let me be clear: that trade wasn’t a random dart throw… I have reason to believe it’s something that will come to fruition on draft night.

Two trades: As a reminder, I had the Steelers trading with the Falcons to move from 21 to 15 and selecting Jaxson Dart, and the Browns trading back into the first round to select Sanders at 24, a pick owned by the Vikings.

They both felt like the right time and the right trading partners. Atlanta and Minnesota enter the draft with five and four picks, respectively. I believe they are primed to trade back.

I think the Steelers are borderline desperate to find a long-term answer at QB, and as I mentioned, Dart checks the boxes they’re looking for. Meanwhile, the Browns can’t leave this draft without a quarterback, and if Sanders falls far enough, it would make a ton of sense from a PR and organizational perspective to reunite Sanders and Hunter.

Linemen galore: When I finished my mock and looked down the list, I found it pretty funny that I had seven offensive linemen selected. Then I remembered it’s not out of the ordinary.

Something to keep in mind in the first round of every NFL Draft: offensive linemen, especially tackles, always go earlier than you think. It’s a premium position and teams always need them. To me, it’s what makes Oregon tackle Josh Conerly Jr., widely viewed as an early Day 2 pick, a player who is bound to hear his name called in the first round.

Big names left out: It happens every year — consensus first-round picks who are left disappointed after the opening round. Most of the time, us draft junkies are left wondering, “How the hell is that guy still on the board?”

In this case, it was Georgia safety Malaki Starks, Michigan defensive lineman Kenneth Grant, Boston College edge Donovan Ezeirauku, Kentucky cornerback Maxwell Hairston and Texas receiver Matthew Golden.

When I write about the range of players in this draft, this is exactly what I’m referring to. Many teams don’t see a difference between pick 20 and pick 40. This leaves it anyone’s guess where these players will land — it all depends on what flavour a team prefers.

I must admit, I felt a bit silly leaving Grant, Hairston and Golden out. Maybe it’ll change in my final mock.

I don’t think any of those players will need to wait long to hear their names called on Day 2, however, which is a bit of foreshadowing to Tuesday’s newsletter.

Tomorrow will be another mock — my second round draft, as a follow-up to mock 3.0.

Until then.

Thanks for reading and, as always, have a great day.

Josh