Hitting for Power

By: Josh Frey-Sam

We’ve all been there.

You’re looking at a handful of players to pick, and as the clock is bleeding, you overthink, tilt and oftentimes end up choosing who you think is the safest option.

But let me remind you that championship fantasy football can often be about who was willing to swing for a home run, not a single.

We’re in the business of playing for first, after all.

Here are the riskiest, yet potentially most rewarding picks you can make this season.

Round 1: RB Christian McCaffrey, SF

I don’t think I need to spend much time on this one.

CMC has a history of injury and is coming off a season in which he touched the ball 413 times.

Having said that, you could make the argument that there’s no one better at taking care of their body than the Niners’ running back.

I have to admit, I’ve warmed up significantly to drafting CMC at his current price this season, although the trend of players who are coming off a 370+ touch season still lingers in my mind.

I’ve seen CMC drafted as high as the 1.04, and I don’t think there’s anything wrong with that. This remains a player who can finish as the RB1 overall off sheer volume alone.

Round 2: WR Rashee Rice, KC

The bad: Rashee Rice is coming off jail time and knee surgery.

The good: He is a top-five fantasy WR when he’s on the field.

Rice comes with a lot of risk — his off-field concerns can leave you questioning how long you’ll actually be able to roster him — but his usage is about as good as it gets for fantasy purposes.

He ranked fifth among all WR in fantasy PPG in half-PPR last season while averaging a sixth-best 9.8 targets per game.

Where he’s going in drafts, Rice could be one of the biggest steals of the season. He has top-five upside.

Round 3: RB Breece Hall, NYJ

There are some players who you want to believe in, but their situation makes it simply too difficult to click their name.

Hall was considered one of the best RBs in the league just two years ago after finishing as the RB2 overall, but has since become a victim of being with a terrible franchise.

He remained productive last season in spite of his circumstances, averaging 4.38 yards per tote, but his five touchdowns were tied for the fewest of his career.

The situation, frankly, doesn’t feel that much different this season, despite the slight upgrade at QB in Geno Smith. The Jets figure to be in negative game scripts for most of the season, forcing Hall to rely on his pass-catching and sparse touchdown opportunities to really make an impact.

That said, he is still an incredible talent who has the ability to run and catch the football effectively. We know he has top-10 talent, so it will be up to managers to decide whether they think he can score more this season.

Round 4: WR Malik Nabers, NYG

Major knee surgery, but an absolute superstar if healthy.

The target consolidation when Nabers eventually returns will be glorious. He could be walking into a 30% target share when he returns to the field.

The question is: are you willing to wait for him to return, and do you think he’ll be the same when he does?

The good news is Nabers didn’t start training camp on the PUP, so there is an outside shot that he suits up in Week 1. Even if he doesn’t, we know that this is a guy who can easily crack the top 10 at his position if he can return to even 85% of his capability.

Round 5: RB Quinshon Judkins, CLE

Fractured fibula and plays in a situation that is impossible to get excited about.

Even then, Judkins found a way to produce while playing in an otherwise dismal offence last season, finishing as an RB1 four times.

Cleveland has revamped their offensive line and added weapons to the WR room, which could free up Judkins a bit.

He’s also been said to look even more explosive than he did in his rookie season, despite coming off a serious injury.

But the situation still leaves a lot to be desired.

Round 6: WR Mike Evans, TB

Injuries. Age. But a certified legend who can still dominate in the red zone.

We’re battling Father Time with Mike Evans, but the Niners signed him to a three-year deal for a reason, and that was likely to be what Davante Adams was for the Rams last season.

Even if Evans isn’t a 1,000-yard receiver, he is still liable to catch 10 touchdown passes this season, which would crush his current ADP.

Then again, hamstring injuries have become far more frequent as he’s gotten older.

Evans really feels like one of the higher upside picks in the sixth because of his touchdown upside.

Round 7: WR Jordyn Tyson, NO

Perhaps this is a hot take, but I don’t care.

Listen, I was as big a believer in Tyler Shough as anyone last season, but it feels like we’re etching the New Orleans Saints’ success in stone this off-season — as if they’re destined to take a major step.

The situation for Tyson is a second-year QB, a certified stud in Chris Olave, a newly paid RB in Travis Etienne, and Tyson, who is undoubtedly (imo) the best receiver in this class but has dealt with his own string of injuries.

There is risk of injury here. There is the usual risk that is tied to a rookie. And there is risk in the QB who is throwing him the ball.

But the opportunity figures to be there in a pass-heavy offence. Tyson could very well lead this rookie class in catches and yards if everything lines up.

Round 8: WR Ricky Pearsall, SF

He’s been shot. He’s dealt with a litany of other injuries. And there is an early-second-round pick now in the fold who could threaten to steal targets.

Ricky Pearsall is a polarizing fantasy pick this season for all of those reasons, but one thing is clear: he is going to start this season as one of the top targets for Brock Purdy, and if these two can continue their connection, Pearsall could be in store for a big year.

In the first four games of last season, before injuries derailed his campaign, Pearsall looked well on his way to a breakout season.

He was a top-20 WR in two games and averaged 10.6 half-PRR PPG in the first month of the season, while averaging 7.3 targets per game.

He would’ve been the WR24 across 17 games in PPG.

The other thing to like here is that Purdy could be throwing the ball a lot more this season. Some experts believe he is a candidate to throw 40 touchdowns this season. Thinking about having a piece of that pie makes Pearsall an intriguing selection in the eighth round.

Thanks for reading and, as always, have a great day.

Josh