Him or HIM

By: Josh Frey-Sam

You’re going to have to make some tough decisions in a few weeks.

There’s going to be a handful of moments when you’re on the clock and have two or more players who both look appealing for your roster.

You know you can only have one, though, because the next time you’re on the clock, the other will be long gone, and the only thing running through your mind is, “don’t make the wrong pick.”

Today, I have four examples you will face, and I have an answer to each problem to help prevent you from tilting on draft day..

Omarion Hampton > De’Von Achane

We’re overthinking it with Hampton and giving Keaton Mitchell way too much credit.

Hampton was well on his way to an amazing rookie season before fracturing his ankle. Now, he gets one of the league’s best run-game designers in Mike McDaniel dialling up plays, and a healthy offensive line.

Not to mention, Hampton is playing in a Chargers offence that is projected to score the 12th-most points this season.

Meanwhile, Achane loses McDaniel and is playing in an offence that is projected to score the fourth-fewest points per game.

It seems like we’re banking on Achane’s talent to outweigh his situation here. While I believe Malik Willis will pave a path to a more efficient rushing season for Achane, his upside has come in the receiving game, which I expect to take a hit this season.

Willis targeted the RB position on just 8.57% of his pass attempts last season, which ranked among the lowest among all quarterbacks.

Save for Bobby Slowik designing more touches for Achane, we can expect Achane to regress in receiving.

There is far more upside for Hampton.

Derrick Henry > Jeremiyah Love

Recent history would say Love is going to finish as an RB1 this season. It might be a low-end RB1, but an RB1, nonetheless.

With Henry, however, I still see top-five upside.

It was about three years ago that I stopped banking on Father Time to catch up to Henry, and I’m not about to start with Declan Doyle now as the offensive co-ordinator.

Since Henry arrived in Baltimore, he’s top-five among RBs in fantasy points per game. That should continue with a now-healthy Lamar Jackson and an improved offensive line.

Doyle, keep in mind, has learned playcalling under Sean Payton and Ben Johnson, the latter of whom is one of the best run designers in the game.

There’s also an outside shot that Henry gets more involved in the passing game this season via the screen game. Payton and Johnson are also two of the best screen designers in the league.

I expect the Ravens to be leading in a lot of games, setting up Henry for a lot of positive scripts.

Meanwhile, Love will need to rack up the bulk of his points in neutral game scripts in the first half. You’re banking on an uber-efficient season from the rookie, on a team that projects to be throwing the ball a lot.

Bhayshul Tuten > Quinshon Judkins

I outlined in Tuesday’s piece that Quinshon Judkins is one of the riskiest picks for players going around his ADP currently.

Judkins is a class two-down back in a terrible situation. Quite frankly, the only reason Judkins was in any neutral game scripts last season was because of the Browns’ defence, which I expect to take a step back this season with Myles Garrett no longer there.

I actually like the value more on Dylan Sampson at the end of drafts.

Meanwhile, Tuten’s hype train has only gained steam since training camp started. He is the clear workhorse RB with Chris Rodriguez working his way back from injury, and if he continues to impress, that’s only going to further Liam Coen’s comfort in giving him the bulk of the work.

I’ve been telling you all to buy Tuten since the end of last year, and I’m not going to stop now. He’s playing on one of the best offences in the league and will be set up for plenty of scoring opportunities.

This isn’t particularly close, in my opinion.

Drake London > Justin Jefferson

Disclaimer: this really depends on if Tua Tagovailoa is the starting quarterback, which I fully expect to be the case.

Both players get an upgrade at quarterback, and both should see target shares north of 28%. So what’s the difference?

As we saw last year, thier floors are much different.

Even while catching passes from Michael Penix last year, London posted 2.32 yards per route run to Jefferson’s 1.88, drew a 46.4 target % in the red zone to Jefferson’s 38.6, and averaged 11.2 fantasy points per game to Jefferson’s 6.9.

Also, after the Vikings bye in Week 6, Jefferson only eclipsed double digits in points twice the rest of the year.

We have already seen Tua support top fantasy WRs in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

Kyler Murray has only supported a WR1 once in his career (D’Andre Hopkins, WR4 in 2020).

Thanks for reading and, as always, have a great day.

Josh