Hello & Goodbye

By: Josh Frey-Sam

If you’re 5-0 or 4-1, you need to start planning for playoffs.

Sure, it might feel a little presumptuous, but the odds that you make the fantasy post-season at this point are pretty darn good, so it is in your best interest to follow the player stock market and attack accordingly.

Understand which of your players can be leveraged to sell-high and tier up at a position, and which players currently owned by opposing managers can be acquired at a reduced cost.

Today’s brief looks at some buy lows and sell highs, based not only on the way they’re currently trending, but also their playoff schedule.

Setting yourself up now can be the difference between winning it all and falling at the finish line.

Quarterback buys

Tyler Shough, NO

New Orleans has the fourth-easiest strength of schedule in the playoffs, with games @ Bucs, vs. Cardinals and @ Falcons. This is a great buy-low opportunity with the Saints being losers of two in a row and Shough coming off a dismal performance. The Saints remain the fastest team in the league and will get Jordyn Tyson back in the coming weeks.

Matthew Stafford, LAR

The Rams have the sixth-easiest SOS in the playoffs, with games vs. Cowboys, @ Seahawks and @ Bucs. Stafford is likely going to cost a bit more today than he did before his best performance of the season on Monday Night Football. But he is worth it, with a rather juicy schedule for the remainder of the season. Stafford has been far from perfect this year, and yet he still finds himself as the QB7 and a potential league-winning QB down the stretch.

Quarterback sells

Brock Purdy, SF

Huh!? I’m not suggesting you do this now. Purdy has a pair of juicy matchups sandwiching the Niners’ bye in Week 8. But after Week 10 against Dallas — a matchup in which Purdy should feast — it could be worth exploring what you can get for him ahead of the trade deadline. The second half of the season includes games against MIN, SEA and LAR, and LAC, KC and PHI during the playoffs.

Running back buys

Jeremiyah Love, ARI

Fantastic buy low right now. Love finally earned a bellcow role before the Cardinals were blown out at home against Detroit, commanding 92% of the opportunity share and every snap in the 2-min drill. With this kind of share, some big performances should be on the horizon. Also worth noting that a rookie QB in Carson Beck should get some starts in the near future, which will likely only heighten the load placed on Love. On top of everything else, the Cardinals also have the easiest SOS in the playoffs, with three dome contests vs. NYJ, @ NO and vs. LVR.

Travis Etienne Jr., NO

It’s funny, I was so low on ETN in the pre-season, but his absence from the Saints offence has been apparent. This isn’t the same unit without him. ETN is the perfect buy-low for a 5-0/4-1 team, because the current manager is likely scrambling to stay in the playoff picture and could use some help sooner rather than later. The Saints have the third-easiest SOS in the playoffs, as the Saints go @TB, vs. ARI and @ATL.

Running back sells

Saquon Barkley, PHI

I’m not even sure what you can get for Saquon right now. Your best hope is that his name still holds enough power to garner you another buy-low candidate. I sent out an offer of Barkley for Love straight up last night. I’d be grateful to get out of that. The only hope for a saved season for Barkley, in my opinion, is if he is traded in real life. Otherwise, you’re set up for failure come playoff time with matchups vs. SEA, vs. HOU and @ SF.

Wide receiver buys

Carnell Tate, TEN

This is actually somewhat painful to write because of how bad Cam Ward looks right now, but Tate’s underlying metrics suggest he is on the cusp of erupting if Ward can figure it out even a little bit.

Tate’s 31.3% first-read target share ranks 10th among all players, ahead of CeeDee Lamb, Parker Washington and Ja’Marr Chase. His 23.9% target share ranks 15th, ahead of Matthew Golden, Tee Higgins and Zay Flowers.

On the flip, his 270 non-catchable air yards ranks fifth among all players, and his 218 unrealized air yards are the fourth-most among all players. Like I said, if Ward can settle in even a little bit, Tate can be a huge asset. Tate’s playoff schedule? The sixth-easiest, with games vs. IND, @ LVR and vs. PIT.

Thanks for reading and, as always, have a great day.

Josh