Harvey takes a hit

By: Josh Frey-Sam

This is what RJ Harvey owners were afraid of.

Present and prospective owners of the Denver Broncos’ rookie running back were Sean Payton’s latest victims this week.

If you missed it, JK Dobbins — who is somehow, some way, still just 26 years old — signed a one-year deal with the Denver Broncos on Tuesday that could be worth up to $5 million.

If you’re a Broncos fan, you’re probably happy about the signing. Dobbins had a career year with the Los Angeles Chargers last season, amassing 905 rushing yards and nine touchdowns in just 13 games, while finishing second in Comeback Player of the Year voting.

However, if you’re a fantasy player who was high on Harvey, or even worse, you are already a Harvey owner in dynasty leagues, you’re probably not feeling too hot right now.

I couldn’t help but shake my head when I saw the news about the Dobbins signing.

Payton is notorious for this — backfields by committee. Most notably, he did it in New Orleans with Reggie Bush, forming a terrific rushing tandem that first included Deuce McAllister then Pierre Thomas. He then did it with Alvin Kamara, who was paired with Mark Ingram for years.

Now, there are pros and cons to what Payton does for fantasy purposes.

The con is Harvey’s — along with Dobbins, Audric Estime and Jaleel McGlaughin’s — outlook in 2025 is murkier than it was before.

Payton has lauded Harvey’s work ethic in the off-season thus far, but has alluded to him being far from a finished product. Most notably, he needs to refine his pass-catching and pass-protection in order to be trusted on third down.

The positive is that Payton has said he believes Harvey does possess three-down potential, which is something fantasy owners should be excited about.

But, for the time being, I would guess we see Dobbins on the field on third down to begin the season, which certainly limits Harvey’s upside.

The pro to the way Payton runs his backfields — and this is particularly relevant to dynasty owners — is that it can preserve the longevity of his running backs.

Bush spent the first five years of his career in New Orleans but went on to enjoy an 11-year career — significant for a running back.

McAllister spent an entire eight-year career with the Saints and was still a 1,000-yard rusher at 28 years old.

Ingram spent eight years in NOLA and returned for another two years at the end of his career. He made a couple of stops in between those stints, including Baltimore, where he rushed for 1,000 yards and 10 TDs as a 30-year-old.

Thomas also spent eight full seasons with the Saints.

Kamara is going on Year 9 with the club and is poised to have another big year.

It’s no coincidence that each of those backs went on to have sustained careers. Payton made sure they always had plenty of tread on their tires.

So, where do I stand on Harvey?

If history tells us anything, it’s that he is a worthwhile long-term investment in dynasty leagues.

What I also know is that rookie running backs who aren’t expected to come in and become immediate superstars usually start the year a bit slower before taking on a more commanding role in the second half of the season.

That’s what I’m led to believe will happen with Harvey this season. Perhaps Dobbins will start the year taking the lion’s share of the touches, but it’s only a matter of time before the Broncos’ rookie catches on.

Keep in mind, Dobbins has an extensive injury history. Not that we want to root for anyone to get hurt, but his history would suggest it’s bound to happen sooner or later.

Here’s the other thing: Payton has emphasized this “joker” role among his running backs. He wants someone who can do any and everything — run, catch, protect, etc. — while aligning all over the field in order to set the offence up with favourable matchups.

This is another thing he wasn’t willing to crown Harvey with early on, but suggested he has what it takes to eventually take on that role.

Depending on where you look, Harvey’s stock has already dropped. He was going as high as the fourth round before Dobbins signed, but is now a sixth-round pick. Meanwhile, you can still get Dobbins in the teens.

One last thing — working in Harvey’s favour is his draft capital. He was selected in the second round of the draft by a team whose head coach publicly stated he wanted to upgrade the position.

This is to say that although Harvey may no longer have the appeal for a full season of production, he still holds a significant amount of value, especially in dynasty leagues.

Be patient with this one. It might pay huge dividends.

Thanks for reading and, as always, have a great day.

Josh