Futures bets 2025-26

By: Josh Frey-Sam

I’ve spent some time with my crystal ball.

The futures bets only add to the pre-season hype every year, as I sift through hundreds of potentially fruitful long-term wagers in hopes of padding my bankroll at the end of the season.

Historically, it’s been a profitable venture for me.

Last year, I broke even. It was actually a rough go for the most part — I went 2-8 overall — but I made up for it in a big way by cashing on Jared Verse to win Defensive Rookie of the Year (x11).

I have another DROY bet for this year, along with four other plays that I believe hold tremendous value.

A little plug before we get into things: you can get these and all of my plays for this season over at The Janitor’s Closet YouTube channel, which I run with my buddy.

First, let’s start with some plays that I really like, but that didn’t end up making the cut.

Justin Fields over 649.5 rushing yards (1.90)

The main reason I didn’t pull the trigger on this bet was that I have my doubts that the New York Jets coaching staff will actually let Fields start the whole year.

If you think he will, then this is a terrific bet. Fields’ legs are his superpower, and he’s never shied away from activating them.

In 10 starts as a rookie, he rushed for 420 yards. In 15 starts as a sophomore, he scrambled for 1,143. In 2023, he eclipsed this rushing mark in 13 games. Last season, he averaged 48 rush yards per game across six starts.

Emeka Egbuka to have the most receptions for Tampa Bay (2.75)

This is the bet I’m kicking myself over the most this year.

When I first took note of it, it was returning 11x my money. The next time I looked, the odds had dropped to 9-1. Now, you can’t even triple your money.

It’s lost a bit of value for me because of that, but I still think it’s a fantastic bet. Egbuka is primed to be a huge target in the Bucs’ offence in his rookie year.

Chris Godwin will miss the first few weeks at least, and now Jalen McMillan is out for weeks, maybe months, with a sprained neck. That leaves Egbuka, who will operate out of the slot, and Mike Evans, who has historically been a 75-catch guy.

It’s not crazy to suggest Egbuka could reach 85 catches this year.

Tyler Warren over 550.5 receiving yards (1.90)

The targets will be there for Warren. I could see him taking on a Brock Bowers-esk workload in the Indianapolis Colts’ offence, especially with Josh Downs now nursing a hamstring injury.

You look at other recent highly drafted rookie tight ends, and they all smashed this number. Teams want to use these big-body weapons all over the field.

And Daniel Jones being named the starting QB was big news for Warren. I think he clears this number with ease.

Now time for the ones that I did put my money on…

Buffalo Bills to win AFC (4.75)

This is the year the Bills get over the hump, and I think everything has aligned for them to do that.

Their offseason additions bolstered the defence with more veterans and intriguing rookies, and they have the most rounded team of Josh Allen’s career.

The reason I like this the most is that the Bills have an incredibly favourable schedule that will allow them to cruise through the regular season and put them in a great position for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

New Orleans Saints to have worst regular season record (5.25)

You’d be hard-pressed to find a more uninspiring roster in the league. Maybe the Titans, but at least they have a quarterback to work with.

The Saints are old and filled with question marks, especially at the most important position. It looks like Spencer Rattler will get the keys to start, but I won’t be shocked to see rookie Tyler Shough and maybe even a third QB at some point this season.

The one thing working against us is that the Saints appear to have a rather favourable schedule. Even then, a bad roster, combined with a new coaching staff, has left me believing the Saints will hold the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft.

Zach Charbonnet to lead Seahawks in rushing touchdowns (4.20)

Tremendous value here.

Last year, Charbs and Kenneth Walker finished with 22 and 23 rushing attempts in the red zone, respectively. Charbs rushed for six touchdowns to Walker’s five.

All of Charbs’ scores came from inside the 10, where they had the same number of attempts (15). It’s important to remember that Walker only played 12 games last year, but that still doesn’t take away from the fact that Charbonnet was an effective goal-line back.

Entering 2025, there’s a lot more buzz are Charbs and what his role in the offence will be. Some believe he’s even more talented than Walker, and so far, he’s certainly proven to be more durable.

Both Seahawks’ head coach Mike Macdonald and offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak have said he will, in fact, have a bigger role. Right now, sportsbooks have it listed as a forgone conclusion that Walker will score more on the ground, but everything out of camp has suggested otherwise.

Taking Walker’s injury history into account, this becomes a bet that you have to make, purely based on the value.

Mike Vrabel to win Coach of the Year (9.00)

Perhaps no team has improved more entering 2025 than the Patriots, and that includes the “off-season champion” Chicago Bears.

Make no mistake, the Patriots’ defence is going to be good. I also expect Drake Maye to take a big jump under Josh McDaniels and behind an improved offensive line.

The Pats won four games last year, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them in the wild-card hunt. If they sneak into the playoffs, the jump from a top-five pick to a playoff team is enough to warrant Vrabel winning this award.

James Pearce Jr. to win Defensive Rookie of the Year (15.00)

Another one I’m kicking myself over. When I first jotted this down, it was paying 21x my wager.

Although the odds have dropped, I still believe this is a dart worth throwing.

Pearce Jr., whom the Atlanta Falcons traded back into the first round for, was one of the most pro-ready pass rushers in the class. Character concerns caused his stock to drop a bit.

A lot of people will look at Abdul Carter for this award — and I absolutely think he will be in the running — but I look at the opportunity Pearce Jr. will have to make an impact. The Falcons will be leaning on him, along with fellow first-round pick Jalon Walker, who has dealt with a hamstring and groin injury throughout camp, to bolster their pass rush immediately.

Walker’s injury should lead to a slow start, while Pearce Jr. gets more run.

Nice thing here, too, is Pearce Jr. has played A TON in the pre-season, as the Falcons look to expedite his development. He’s proven to be up to the task, and I expect him to hit the ground running.

Thanks for reading and, as always, have a great day.

Josh