Fantasy duel: Bake vs. Herbo

By: Josh Frey-Sam

I got a text from a good friend on Wednesday morning.

“I might plant the flag on a fantasy QB,” he wrote.

Thinking about the flag that I’ve already planted on Dak Prescott being the best value to have this season, I guessed that he was jumping on my hype train of the Dallas Cowboys’ QB.

Justin Herbert was the guy.

We went back and forth for a few texts, explaining why we both see the path to the LA Chargers QB’s success in 2025.

Amid his advocacy, he declared his stance on something that I thought was very interesting, so much so that I’ve made it the topic of today’s Brief:

“… I would wait on (Herbert) potentially instead of (Brock) Purdy/Baker(Mayfield)/ (Jared) Goff,” he said.

At first blush, I scraped two of those names.

Purdy, the Niners’ signal-caller, is actually being drafted as the QB13 and right around the same time as Herbert, who is being drafted as the QB11, so there’s not much of a discussion to be had about who is the better value.

I also disregarded Goff — the QB8 (going in the seventh-round) — because I agreed that Herbert will be the better asset this year.

The debate that intrigued me was with Baker Mayfield, whom I am high on once again this season.

Bake is the QB7 currently, going sometime in the sixth round of drafts. We all know of his reclamation story— honestly, he’s become one of the most entertaining players to watch in the NFL.

The Bucs’ pivot balled last season, finishing as the QB4 overall — his second straight season in the top 10 — while tossing for 41 touchdowns and 4,500 yards, and providing value as a runner with 378 rushing yards and three touchdowns.

His gunslinger mentality, connection with Mike Evans, and the fact that he was playing with a bad defence, all made him a delight to own.

For comparison, Herbo ended as the QB12 — his third straight season outside of the top 10 after beginning his career with two consecutive top 10 finishes — while throwing for 23 touchdowns and 3,870 yards, and rushing for 306 yards and two touchdowns.

Herbert probably finished right around where many of us thought he would in the new run-heavy offensive scheme influenced by head coach Jim Harbaugh and deployed by co-ordinator Greg Roman.

Simply, he didn’t throw enough to make him a trustworthy starting option every week. Herbo attempted 504 passes in 2024, 66 fewer than Baker.

The Chargers attempted 30.1 passes per game — tied for the fifth fewest in the league — while the Bucs ranked in the middle at 32.7.

With that as the backdrop, who would I rather have this season?

I simulated a fantasy draft to compare what a roster with each player could look like.

By selecting Baker in the sixth round, you’re left with some intriguing, but largely uninspiring, options when you get to Herbert’s range in the ninth round. You’re looking at WR Jayden Reed, RBs Rhamondre Stevenson and Javonte Williams, and TEs Evan Engram and Tyler Warren.

Conversely, by waiting to select Herbert in the ninth, you would’ve already drafted someone who sparks more hope in the sixth round: RBs D’Andre Swift, RJ Harvey or Aaron Jones; and WRs Jameson Williams, Jerry Jeudy and Tet McMillian are all going in that range.

So, there’s no doubt waiting to select Herbert will garner you a better pairing with a skill position player, but let’s look at some other numbers that will impact how these guys fare this year.

Baker attempted the fifth-most passes (570) and ranked ninth in intended air yards (3,966) last season. Interestingly, Herbert ranked fifth in intended air yards (4,326) despite attempting 66 fewer passes.

That’s to say: although Herbo didn’t attempt many passes last year, he was trying to push the ball downfield for splash plays.

Side note: Baker was third in air yards on completed passes (2,456) while Herbert was fifth (2,411).

What killed Herbert and his fantasy appeal were two things: drops and scoring opportunities. Herbert tied for second-most among all QBs with 32 dropped passes, and he only attempted 57 passes inside the red zone, which ranked 17th.

The drops can be attributed to a weak supporting cast. Beyond rookie Ladd McConkey, there wasn’t much to get excited about or trust, which is why Ladd ate up nearly 23% of the target share.

Meanwhile, Baker had a slightly more reliable supporting cast, especially before Chris Godwin was injured, and had 27 passes dropped. The biggest difference was in the red zone, where he ranked sixth with 78 attempts.

These numbers shouldn’t shock you. The Chargers want to run the ball, while the Bucs had no problem letting Baker sling it all over the yard.

This year, I expected similar numbers for Baker. This offence is running it back, and has gotten even more explosive with the addition of first-round draft pick Emeka Egbuka. This team won’t be shy about throwing it again, perhaps at an even higher rate.

The bigger change could be with Herbert. The Chargers added jump-ball specialist Mike Williams in free agency and drafted Ole Miss’ Tre Harris to bolster the WR room. LA also drafted RB Omarion Hampton and acquired Najee Harris in free agency, so don’t expect the Chargers to stray from their run-first identity, but at least Herbert should have a much more explosive and reliable supporting cast through the air.

The final feather in Herbert’s cap this year could be with his legs. People forget how athletic he is and that he’s truly a threat on the ground.

Greg Roman added to this during his mini-camp press conference when he said, “I think we’ll see Justin Herbert use his legs a bit more this year.”

Herbo suffered a high-ankle sprain early last season that lingered and certainly inhibited his mobility. With Roman, who was the architect behind some of the most prolific rushing seasons by QBs in recent memory (Collin Kaepernick, Lamar Jackson), calling plays, he could be in store for some more designed runs in 2025.

My takeaway from this research is this: my friend could be on to something. We’ve seen Herbert finish as the QB9 and QB2 overall before, so we know he has it in him to deliver an elite fantasy season. He’s also another year familiar with this offence, has a much better supporting cast and will probably earn more rushing yards.

Would I rather have him or Baker on my team?

It’s very close, but I think I’d still take my chances with Baker.

My gut says Baker’s numbers are due to regress slightly, while Herbert should see a positive regression. And while you could get a better skill position player in the 6th round versus the 9th, I want the QB on the team that I know is going to throw the ball.

Bake seems to be the safer pick between the two, although I absolutely see both of them finishing inside the top 10 this season.

I must admit, there’s a big piece of me that feels like I could be eating my words in a few months.

This was an excellent exercise, and although today was a long Brief, it was well worth it.

Thanks for reading and, as always, have a great day.

Josh