Falling Feathers

By: Josh Frey-Sam

It’s not too early to suggest that the Baltimore Ravens enter Week 6 with their collective backs against the wall. Closing in on them is a lost season in the prime of Lamar Jackson’s career.

It’s a feeling that has become all too familiar for some franchises. The Ravens don’t have to look further than their divisional rival, the Cincinnati Bengals, to see what that looks like.

It’s different in Baltimore, though.

Unlike the Bengals or even those years when the Indianapolis Colts had Andrew Luck under center, the Ravens were widely regarded as one of the top three or four teams in the NFL. They carried every expectation of not only winning the division and the conference, but winning the whole dang thing.

It feels like we’ve reached a crossroad in those aspirations, though.

Lamar’s hamstring is injured — something that is especially concerning for a mobile quarterback — and I’m not convinced he returns this week.

Jay Glazer, who, albeit, is an average insider in my rankings, said Sunday that Jackson has an “outside shot” to play this week, which could be viewed positively or negatively.

If Lamar can’t go, the Ravens are faced with another week of Cooper Rush at the helm of an offence that clearly relies on the two-time MVP to make its world go ‘round.

I think the Ravens know this is a critical point in the season, too, but the decision to play a banged-up Lamar to keep their season alive is a risky one, given the type of injury he’s dealing with.

The other part that plays into this is that the Ravens have a bye next week. In most cases, it would be an easy decision to let him rest for an extra week and return in Week 8, but could it be too late by then?

Here’s a stat I found prior to last week’s game:

Since 2002, there have been 16 teams that had a double-digit win total in the preseason and started the season 1-3.

FOURTEEN of those slow-starting teams failed to make the playoffs (2007 Chargers and 2002 Steelers did make playoffs), and thirteen consecutive teams have failed to bounce back from the tough start.

The Ravens also play a strong Rams team this week, so it’s entirely possible that the Ravens fall to 1-5 if Lamar can’t go. Now, I don’t have the stat for teams who go on to make playoffs after starting 1-5, but I can say with some confidence that I don’t think that number is very high.

Now, I know what some of you are thinking — didn’t you see what the Bengals nearly pulled off last year?

While not impossible, you can’t assume the Ravens will catch fire like that, especially with how underwhelming they’ve been on defence.

Among the most concerning numbers, they are 30th in EPA/play, 31st in success rate allowed and dead last in sack rate.

Simply put, the Ravens have been one of the worst defences in football — words that no one has uttered in at least three decades.

I won’t be surprised if defensive co-ordinator Zach Orr is asked to relinquish play-calling duties. The Ravens have a standard for defence that isn’t being met. They also have another capable play-caller in the building in Chuck Pagano, who is currently coaching the secondary.

To make matters worse, the injuries have piled up, and I’m not convinced that they’ll get better any time soon.

On Tuesday, the Ravens signed defensive back CJ Garnder-Johnson to their practice roster and acquired safety Alohi Gillman in a trade for former first-round pick, EDGE Odafe Oweh, two moves that signal they aren’t particularly optimistic that their secondary will return to full strength soon.

The biggest loss this season will continue to be Justin Madubuike. This is a different unit without him.

What’s the glass-half-full view?

If Lamar comes back after the bye, the Ravens' ensuing eight-game stretch looks somewhat favourable: vs. Chicago, @ Miami, @ Minnesota, @ Cleveland, vs. Jets, vs. Cincinnati, vs. Pittsburgh and @ Cincinnati.

They finish vs. New England, @ Green Bay and @ Pittsburgh.

You’d be talking about a run for the books with a quarterback who probably isn’t healthy. Improbable? Yes. Impossible? No.

I expect the Ravens to make it interesting down the stretch, but at this point, I’m writing the AFC playoff picture without the Purple and Black.

Thanks for reading and, as always, have a great day.

Josh