Draaaake!?

By: Josh Frey-Sam

Drake London has stuck out to me like a sore thumb this off-season.

Every time the second round comes around in a mock draft, I can’t help but hover over his name and ponder what it would be like with him as my WR1 or the second in an elite WR tandem.

I have yet to pull the trigger, but I can’t help but feel like I’d be making a grave mistake in passing him when the time comes to draft for real.

So let me make the case for why we should be targeting the Atlanta Falcons’ wide receiver in drafts, and why he will finish among the top fantasy options this season.

London quietly took a massive leap in 2024, finishing as the WR5 overall in fantasy.

It was a career year in every respect for the 23-year-old, who reached 100 receptions and eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards for the first time in his career.

His 100 grabs ranked seventh, while his 1,271 yards were fourth best in the league.

London also found the end zone nine times, which bested his first two seasons combined (six).

The downside to London’s season was that his final numbers included Week 18 when he racked up 10 grabs, 187 yards and two touchdowns against a dreadful Panthers defence in a matchup that was irrelevant for fantasy.

London was also inconsistent last season. He had seven weeks in which he finished with less than 10 points in half-PPR formats, and aside from his huge season-finale, he only had one other game where he registered more than 16.4 points (27.4 against the Buccaneers in Week 5).

So, not only did London offer up several bust performances, but he didn’t offer many boom weeks either.

I think this season could provide something special, though. There are a lot of encouraging numbers that suggest he can become an elite option.

London commanded 29.3% of the targets in Atlanta’s passing game, which was the third most of any player on any team last season. Only Malik Nabers (30.7%) and Justin Jefferson (29.8%) had a higher share.

Where the numbers get exciting is in the red zone. While London scored nine times last season, there was potential for so much more.

His 24 red zone targets were the fourth-most among all receivers in 2024, and 18 of those came in the end zone, which tied for the second-most.

The best number is his 46.43% (!!) target share inside the 20, which was the highest of any player by more than five percentage points.

The reason his gaudy target percentage didn’t equate to more touchdowns was that the Falcons ranked dead last in red zone rate last season.

London ran just 61 routes inside the red zone, which was 25th among receivers. But when Atlanta did throw it, there was a good chance it was going to No. 5.

The big question that looms around London entering 2025 has to do with his quarterback, Michael Penix Jr., and whether he can support a top fantasy weapon.

Rookie quarterbacks (MPJ is technically in his second year) don’t have a great history of doing this, but I believe he could be an outlier.

London’s numbers remained solid when Penix was thrust into the starting role for the last three games of the regular season. The duo logged 22 grabs for 352 yards and two touchdowns during that stretch as London put up weeks of 8.4, 14.1 and 35.7 to end the year.

The Falcons actually threw the ball more with the rookie QB, and Penix translated that into some really encouraging metrics for fantasy. MPJ ranked sixth in deep throw rate, fourth in hero throw rate and second in average depth of target, while targeting London on 41% of his throws.

Now, we can’t expect the latter metric to hold up over an entire regular season, but at least we have 12 quarters of football to suggest MPJ will not be shy about throwing to his No. 1 wideout.

Schedule-wise, it could be better, as Atlanta projects to face the 10th hardest schedule for receivers this season.

One thing I am confident in, however, is London’s talent and his projected volume. He’ll have the best quarterback of his career throwing him the ball, and with it being a contract year, he doesn’t need any extra motivation to ball out.

London is going early-mid second round in drafts. If you opt to pass on a WR in the first round, he would make a fine WR1 on any team.

Thanks for reading and, as always, have a great day.

Josh