Don't Doze: AFC West

By: Josh Frey-Sam

The AFC West has every reason to return to the wild west again this season.

Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes have something to prove; the Los Angeles Chargers look like a top 10 offence and defence; the Denver Broncos have perhaps gotten even better after their trip to the AFC Championship; and the Las Vegas Raiders, though still somewhat underwhelming from a talent perspective, look competent again.

This will undoubtedly be one of the key divisions to watch this season, and it’s littered with potential gems for fantasy.

Here are four sleepers to know in the AFC West.

Kansas City Chiefs: Travis Kelce, TE

For the first time in a decade, Travis Kelce is a sleeper.

This pick is strictly based on value. Kelce is going in the 10th-11th round of drafts right now, and even at 36 years old, it feels like he can very well outplay that ADP.

Kelce’s 108 targets last season were the lowest he’s seen since 2015, but he actually had his most efficient season since 2022, hauling in 76 passes for 851 yards and five touchdowns to finish as the TE3 overall.

Here’s the thing — Kelce isn’t going to win you your league. He doesn’t have the same separating ability as he once did to rack up yards.

He does, however, have a relatively safe floor given his situation and familiarity with Patrick Mahomes.

The Chiefs didn’t really address the WR position this off-season beyond drafting Cyrus Allen in the fifth round, and outside of Rashee Rice, there’s a lot to be desired. So, I would bet that Kelce is going to continue to see a lot of looks.

He will also continue to be a viable threat to score every week, which gives him a path to another top-five finish at the position.

Kelce’s target percentage in the red zone (85.7 per cent) was the fourth-highest among all TEs last season and even better than Trey McBride.

I also think about Mahomes coming off an ACL injury. I doubt he will look to scramble much to extend plays — at least in the early going of the season — so that should lend to even more of the quick passing game, which favours both Rice and Kelce.

His best days are behind him, but you could do a lot worse than Kelce in the 10th.

Las Vegas Raiders: Jalen Nailor, WR

I mean, you could really take your pick at anyone not named Ashton Jeanty or Brock Bowers in the Raiders offence.

But I’m going to say Jalen Nailor, who the Raiders gave a three-year $35 million contract this off-season and was the only semi-notable addition to this WR room.

There was some chatter earlier this off-season about whether Nailor could play the “JSN role” in Klint Kubiak’s offence this season.

Whether that comes to fruition or not remains to be seen, but I do think there is something to be said about Nailor being one of two new WRs who Kubiak either signed or drafted in his first off-season as head coach.

Sixth-round pick Malik Benson was the other, but there’s not much to look into there yet.

I would like to think that Kubiak has a vision for Nailor. And the rest of the existing WR room leaves a lot to be desired. Tre Tucker and Jack Bech are the two notables, but neither has really done anything to show they are going to command targets.

Of course, that could change in training camp, which is why I say anyone not named Jeanty or Bowers could be worth taking a shot on.

But I’m choosing Nailor because he has a clear pathway to targets and is the only notable WR on the roster who was hand-picked by Kubiak.

Nailor, btw, is going undrafted.

Los Angeles Chargers: Keaton Mitchell, RB

Yeah, there’s a lot to be excited about with this Chargers offence, led by new OC Mike McDaniel.

Most of which should probably be the run game. Remember, McDaniel made his name as a forward-thinking run-game coordinator with the Niners.

This will obviously benefit RB1 Omarion Hampton, who I love this season. But Keaton Mitchell, who the Bolts signed this off-season, presents another intriguing option in this backfield.

At 5-8, 190 pounds, Mitchell has a similar build and skill set to De’Von Achane, who McDaniel turned into a star during his time in Miami. He’s a terrific fit in this run scheme, and has some pass-catching ability, as well. He certainly has the juice to break away when he’s in space, which made him such an intriguing prospect when the Ravens scooped him up as a UDFA in 2023.

The problem for Mitchell is he hasn’t realized that potential yet, because he hasn’t been on the field much. Despite him entering his fourth season in the NFL, he’s only played 26 games.

What keeps him interesting, however, is that he’s flashed many times when given the opportunity. He averaged 8.4 yards/attempt across 47 carries as a rookie before getting injured. And last season he averaged 5.8 yards per tote while appearing in a career-high 13 games.

It sounds like the plan is for Mitchell to see anywhere from eight to 10 touches per game when Hampton is healthy, which might limit his value. But with his explosiveness and this scheme, that could be a valuable eight to 10 touches.

Not to mention, if Hampton were to go down with an injury — he missed half of last season due to injury — Mitchell would be thrust into a huge opportunity.

Denver Broncos: Jonah Coleman, RB

There’s a piece of me that wonders if we see Jonah Coleman command the lion’s share of the touches in Denver’s offence at some point this season.

Not because he overthrew a healthy JK Dobbins on the depth chart, but because Dobbins misses time and Coleman shows Sean Payton and Davis Webb that they cannot take him off the field for long.

Coleman was drafted in the fourth round of this year’s draft and joined a crowded RB room with Dobbins and last year’s second-round pick RJ Harvey, who had moments but largely underwhelmed as a rookie.

I think it was telling of what the Broncos thought of Harvey when they went back to the well to grab Coleman in this year’s draft.

At 5-8, 220 pounds, he’s built like a bowling ball, but he has the elusiveness to make guys miss, too. While Dobbins can grind out tough yards, I think Coleman could find some work as a short-yardage/goal line back early in the season as he proves himself, then begin to see more work on early downs as the year goes on.

This is Dobbins’ backfield as it stands, but Coleman has the makeup to be the future of this RB room and could have a chance to prove that if he gets any amount of significant run.

Going in the 10th round of drafts currently, Coleman is a dart throw that you need to hold onto if you draft. He could pay big dividends at a moment’s notice.

Thanks for reading and, as always, have a great day.

Josh