Cutdown day notebook

By: Josh Frey-Sam

We have a pretty good idea of what teams are going to look like when the NFL regular season kicks off next week.

The initial 53-man rosters are locked in, and while there will still be plenty of moves made in the next few days as teams sift through more than 1,200 players who hit the market at the same time on Tuesday, we have a much clearer picture about everyone who will be fantasy-relevant in Week 1.

Important to note that there are trades that can and will happen, so this can throw a wrench into some of our plans, but I’ve tracked the most notable moves and how they will affect your fantasy teams.

Risers 📈

Everyone on the Cleveland Browns

Do not overlook Kenny Pickett being traded to the Las Vegas Raiders. This tells me that the Browns are locked into Joe Flacco as their starting quarterback, which is terrific news for fantasy.

David Njoku has been an incredible value all off-season, and now you can draft him with confidence. Same with Jerry Jeudy.

Now, I don’t expect Flacco to start all year. The Browns drafted Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders, and they will want to get a look at one of them at least. But we should be safe for the first half of the season, unless things go off the rails for Flacco.

Staying with the Browns, WR Dionte Johnson was a surprise cut. This is great news for Cedric Tillman, who broke out for a few games while Jeudy was hurt last season. I like Tillman as a late-round flier.

Finally, RB Pierre Strong was cut. That’s a nod of confidence from the Browns coaching staff to Dylan Sampson and Jerome Ford, who are the guys to have with Quinshon Judkins still unsigned.

It’s worth noting that Sampson started the final pre-season game for Cleveland. I wouldn’t bank on that being the tell-all for this backfield, but he is absolutely someone you should target in late rounds, because he could be in for a massive workload to begin the season.

Jalen Coker

Do me a favour — keep an eye on Coker.

In what was the most surprising move of the day for me, the Carolina Panthers cut WR Hunter Renfrow. While that happened, Adam Theilen was in the thick of trade talks between the Panthers and Minnesota Vikings, who want to bring the veteran receiver back home.

Nothing is a sure thing there — the Vikings might pivot to another familiar face in KJ Osborne, who was released by the Commanders — but if the Panthers offload two veterans, that’s huge news for a guy like Coker, who I think might be a better fit than Xavier Legette.

To top it all off, rookie WR Tet McMillian, who is expected to command the lion’s share of targets in this offence, returned to practice this week after dealing with his second case of an aggravated hamstring.

If you’re new to football, hamstring injuries of any kind to WRs in pre-season are a yellow flag at least. Could we see Coker emerge as the No. 1 WR in this offence if McMillian re-aggravates it again?

Theo Johnson

Don’t feel bad if you don’t know who Johnson is.

The New York Giants selected the tight end in the fourth round of last year’s draft, and while he certainly flashed his elite athleticism at times, he was quiet for the most part.

Johnson is unlikely to be drafted in your league, but if you’re in a deeper league or punted on the tight end position altogether and will need to stream a player from the waiver wire on most weeks, he’s a guy you certainly need to keep an eye on.

The reason for this is that the Giants surprisingly cut fourth-year TE Greg Dulcich, who was expected to share the receiving workload with Johnson. Now Johnson is far and away the best vertical threat at TE for New York.

Javonte Williams

Nobody wanted Williams for most of the off-season. Now, he could hold some really nice flex value.

The Dallas Cowboys’ running back is the only healthy, viable rusher remaining on the roster. Rookie Phil Mafah was moved to IR on Tuesday, while fellow rookie Jaydon Blue is tending to an ankle injury, and Miles Sanders is nursing a shoulder ailment.

This leaves Williams and Deuce Vaughn.

If Sanders and Blue can’t heal up in eight days, this is Williams’ backfield.

RJ Harvey

On Monday, the Denver Broncos released second-year RB Audric Estime. I wouldn’t rule out Jaleel McLaughlin or Tyler Badie being cut either.

In any case, clearing up the backfield is a vote of confidence for Harvey, whom the Broncos selected in the second round of this year’s draft.

Head coach Sean Payton is a tough guy to figure out, but it’s at least notable that Harvey received most of the early-down work for the Broncos throughout pre-season, while JK Dobbins came in on third down.

I think this is how it’ll play out in the regular season. The one thing that isn’t very clear is who will see goal-line carries.

Tony Pollard

It was already trending this way, but the Tennessee Titans officially placed Tyjae Spears (high-ankle sprain) on injured reserve Tuesday, sidelining him for at least the first four games of the season.

Pollard is going to get a heavy workload right out of the gates, and his draft price does not reflect that.

He is a must-draft for me in every league.

Fallers 📉

Joe Mixon

I’ve had mixed feelings about Mixon all off-season. His workload is what fantasy owners dream of, but his age and injury history largely turned me off.

Until Monday, I didn’t mind the thought of drafting Mixon at a discount, while his foot injury clouded his status. Now, however, I’m completely out on him this season.

The Houston Texans moved him to the Physically Unable to Perform list on Monday, ruling him out for at least the first four games of the season. The problem with his injury is that we don’t know exactly what it is, though doctors have managed to piece together some information.

The bottom line that I’ve taken from the research I’ve done is that this is something that very well could nag at Mixon all season and affect other areas, much like we saw with Christian McCaffrey last year. He’s also unlikely to produce at a high level if he does come back.

He’s dropping to double-digit rounds in drafts now, and I still wouldn’t take him there.

Risers from this are Nick Chubb, Dameon Pierce and Woody Marks.

Jack Bech

Perhaps Bech already wasn’t on your radar anymore, but he’s still worth noting. I thought he would make a massive push in training camp to start opposite Jakobi Meyers, but that hasn’t come to fruition. Instead, it’s been fellow rookie D’Onte Thornton, who has a terrific blend of height and speed.

There was a window of a few hours where I thought Bech’s fortunes might change, as it was reported that Meyers asked to be traded, but the Raiders’ signing of Amari Cooper squashed that completely — frankly, that signing was an indictment of Bech.

I don’t see Cooper or Thornton as draftable, but I would absolutely keep an eye on them. I’m not completely sold that Meyers gets moved, so, if anything, everything involving the Raiders is just good news for Geno Smith.

Omarion Hampton

The only reason Hampton is a faller is that his average draft position has climbed to a point where I don’t think I’ll be drafting him much this season.

Najee Harris, who suffered a superficial eye injury earlier this summer, was removed from the PUP, clearing the way for him to play in Week 1 and resume the timeshare in the Los Angeles Chargers’ backfield that was expected all off-season.

I still expect Hampton to take command of this backfield at some point this season, but his draft position is one of a player who you’re expecting to produce like a low-end RB1, high-end RB2 immediately, and I’m not sure if he’ll do that.

I hope he proves me wrong.

Thanks for reading and, as always, have a great day.

Josh