Coming soon... The RoJo Show

By: Josh Frey-Sam

It makes too much sense.

I don’t think I’ve ever had as much conviction on a sleeper as I do with this player, this year.

This situation has been in front of us all off-season, and there isn’t one fantasy guru talking about it. So, consider yourself fortunate that you’re subscribed to the Back Bacon Brief, because I’m about to introduce you to the surprise of 2025.

Roschon Johnson is Jamaal Williams. He is David Montgomery.

If that doesn’t make sense yet, stay with me.

Chicago Bears running back D’Andre Swift has been marked as one of the premier value picks in fantasy football leading up to drafts, and rightfully so. He appears poised to lead a backfield in an offence schemed by a brilliant play-caller in Ben Johnson, and is only going for a seventh-round pick.

Swift is worth his price, as he will have a sizeable role in the offence this season, but he’s not the best value in that backfield.

If you don’t know much about Roschon Johnson, he’s just 24 years old and entering his third year in the NFL. He went to the University of Texas, where he was a productive player for the Longhorns but never got to lead the backfield because there was a freak named Bijan Robinson commanding the lion’s share of touches.

Roschon slid to the fourth round of the 2023 Draft and hasn’t been given much opportunity thus far.

He logged 81 rushing attempts (and 34 catches) in his rookie season while serving as a depth option behind Khalil Herbert, then was used even less in his sophomore campaign — 55 rushes, 16 receptions — as a backup to Swift.

Despite being used sparingly, Roschon’s talent is easy to see, and the numbers suggest he should be getting the ball more.

Last season, he had a 55.81 per cent success rate per rush in non-garbage time, the highest of any running back in the NFL.

For comparison, Swift had a 34.38 per cent success rate in non-garbage time.

Rocschon also averaged -0.08 EPA (expected points added) per rush, while Swift averaged -0.15 EPA per rush. Neither of these players was going to be particularly good in this metric because they both ran behind an awful offensive line, but they do suggest that Roschon managed to do more with less.

As a final comparison to consider, Swift scored two touchdowns inside the red zone to Roschon’s six despite the latter garnering 16 fewer rushing attempts inside the 20..

I want that to serve as the backdrop as I get back to my original point about Roschon being Jamaal Williams and David Montgomery.

Ben Johnson has a small but telling track record about how he likes to deploy his rushing attack.

There’s a power guy, whom he likes to use as a tone setter and in scoring position, and there’s a juice guy, whom he tries to get in space between the 20s.

In his first season as an offensive co-ordinator in Detroit, he had Williams (6-0, 224 pounds) and Swift (5-9, 215 pounds).

Williams was leaned on heavily, eclipsing 1,000 yards and rushing for 17 touchdowns, in what was a career year. Meanwhile, Swift had just 99 rushing attempts while he was used more in a change-of-pace receiving role (48 receptions).

In 2023 and 2024, Johnson had Montgomery (5-11, 224 pounds) and Jahmyr Gibbs (5-9, 200 pounds). Montgomery rushed for 25 touchdowns during those two seasons, while Gibbs rushed for 26 and added five more through the air.

We must note one very important distinction between 2022 and 2023/24: Gibbs, the “change-of-pace” back, is a far superior talent to Swift, which warranted him a larger role in the offence.

That brings us back to the 6-0, 225-pound Roschon and the 2025 Bears.

Ben Johnson knows what Swift is about. He spent three years with him in Detroit — one calling plays.

With that said, I suspect Swift will maintain a role in between the 20s, but Roschon will get a workload that not many are predicting this season.

The most critical part of the workload for fantasy purposes will be in the red zone, where Ben Johnson has shown that he wants the power back on the field when it comes time to put points on the board.

But I also think Roschon will have a sizeable role between the 20s, as well. After all, Williams and Montgomery did.

We don’t know what Roschon is capable of in the NFL yet because he hasn’t received a real opportunity to show it. I think Ben Johnson is going to give him that opportunity, because, I’m telling you now, he’s a better overall running back than Swift.

I won’t be surprised if we see him take over this backfield as the season goes on.

A side note: Roschon was actually recruited to Texas as a quarterback. Why is that notable? It’s not usually, unless your play-caller’s name is Ben Johnson. Perhaps we could get a passing touchdown or two added to the yearly total.

I’ve saved the best part for last: you can get Roschon in the 12th round right now.

He’s basically free. So even if I am horribly wrong on this, it won’t cost you.

Don’t hesitate to gatekeep this one. It might just win you you’re league.

Thanks for reading and, as always, have a great day.

Josh