Ante Up

By: Josh Frey-Sam

For those who aren’t aware already, I also co-host a sports betting channel on YouTube that focuses on the NFL and MLB.

It’s called The Janitor’s Closet, and we’ve done quite well over the last few years, considering we’re a couple of guys who have regular day jobs.

We recently released our NFL Futures Show for this season, a loaded episode that breaks down all 10 futures bets I’ve made this season.

Check it out if you want to make some extra cheese this season.

I wanted to share here which offensive-focused bets I’ve placed, as it can help illustrate a few players I’m bullish on this year.

I’ve also included several bets that I haven’t placed but that I have leans on.

They will be small blurbs for each bet, but if you want deeper explanations, then watch the video.

Gunnar Helm over 399.5 rec yards

The Titans’ second-year pro enters this season as the team’s clear TE1 after the departure of Chig Okonkwo. I’m projecting a mini-breakout here in an ascending offence that is called by Brian Daboll, who has not been shy about featuring his tight ends in the past.

Jalen Coker over 599.5 rec yards

Projecting another breakout. Coker is freshly paid and healthy again after a hamstring injury derailed last season. He is the clear No. 2 WR in the Panthers offence and will be featured by head coach Dave Canales. There’s also word that Bryce Young has been cooking thus far in camp, which doesn’t hurt.

Baker Mayfield over 3,599.5 passing yards

Mayfield is looking to get paid, and he has all the resources for a big bounce-back season: an offensive co-ordinator upgrade in Zac Robinson, who is quietly one of the more pass-heavy play-callers in the league, and a dynamic receiving corps.

De’Zhaun Stribling to win Offensive Rookie of the Year

This is purely taking advantage of excellent value. Stribling is 31-1 to win this award, and is all of a sudden set up for a massive opportunity in a starting role in what I expect to be a potent 49ers’ passing attack. The downside? This is an honour that is almost exclusively awarded to first-round picks.

Trevor Lawrence to win Most Valuable Player

Lawrence finished fifth in MVP voting last season after a torrent finish to the regular season that included 15 TDs to 1 INT in his last six games. It was clear he had finally found his footing in Liam Coen’s offence, and now he can hit the ground running this season with his full complement of weapons. He’s paying 21-1, and I think that’s a crime.

Now, for the bets I haven’t placed, but I like a lot…

AJ Brown 10+ receiving touchdowns

Brown joins a Patriots offence that is going to force-feed him the ball. Notably, the Pats were tied-for-fifth with 38 pass attempts inside the 10 last season, while Drake Maye was tied-for-fifth with 14 passing touchdowns inside the 10.

Antonio Williams to win Offensive Rookie of the Year

Don’t like this if the Commanders sign a veteran WR. But Williams is standing out in training camp and very well could turn into an Amon-Ra St.Brown clone in David Blough’s offence.

Denzel Boston to win Offensive Rookie of the Year

Everyone is hyped on KC Concepcion, but Boston has been the real standout of training camp. He’s a red-zone threat who is proving to be a worthy target in between the 20s, too, on a Browns team that is void of talent.

Carnell Tate to win Offensive Rookie of the Year

The easiest pick for this award. Tate should be peppered with targets by Cam Ward and will have every opportunity to make an immediate impact. He’s been outstanding in training camp thus far.

Jayden Higgins over 574.5 rec yards

Higgins posted 525 yards while only playing 58% of snaps in his rookie season. He’ll be a full-time starter this year.

Dalton Kincaid over 549.5 rec yards

Kincaid was one of the most efficient tight ends last season. The problem, as it has been throughout his career, was availability. Kincaid seems to have figured out his knee problem, and if he’s healthy, he’ll continue to be a big-time target for Josh Allen.

Emeka Egbuka over 899.5 rec yards

I think Egbuka is a dark-horse candidate for Offensive Player of the Year. Through the first five weeks of his NFL career (before suffering a hamstring injury), Egbuka was on pace for 1,513 yards and 17 touchdowns. He’s healthy, and the Bucs will be slinging it.

Tucker Kraft over 599.5 rec yards

This is so low because Kraft is coming off an ACL injury. I can assure you, he’s playing Week 1 and will re-assume his role as a focal point in Green Bay’s offence. Kraft was on pace for over 1,000 yards and 12 touchdowns last season before he was injured.

Calvin Ridley under 624.5 rec yards

I think there’s a chance Elic Ayomanour usurps Ridley for the WR3 on the Titans depth chart this season. Ridley is almost an afterthought in this offence.

Thanks for reading and, as always, have a great day.

Josh